585
FXUS61 KCLE 160554
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND FAIR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND SOME HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN LOW LYING PRONE AREAS, BUT FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN
NORTHWEST PA TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO.
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY. HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED NO POPS DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE AREA, ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY AND
HOW TO TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS THE AREA, BUT A MORE
FAVORABLE MCS TRACK SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A BETTER INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXISTS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM MCS
ACTIVITY COULD SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN SCENARIO IS LOW AT
THIS POINT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON ANY UPSTREAM
MCS ACTIVITY AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THAT WILL DICTATE THE DEGREE
OF LOCAL DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE
A BIT COOLER, WITH LOW TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED. THE FRONT BRIEFLY
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH POPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID CHANCE
RANGE FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY, AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONTINUED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR MVFR BR ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS (KFDY/KMFD/KYNG)
BETWEEN 08-12Z/SAT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO TERMINALS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH
THIS TAF PACKAGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 TSRA GROUP
AT KTOL TONIGHT AND KCLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FUTURE TAF
PACKAGES AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE LIKELY TRACK OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS BETTER REALIZED.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS THIS MORNING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH 8-10 KNOT NORTHERLY
WINDS AT KCLE AND KERI.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVES BUILD TO 2-4 FEET ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS 8-12 KNOTS RETURN BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET OR LESS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED ON
MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...03
NEAR TERM...03
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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