600
FXUS61 KCLE 160625
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
225 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, WITH LIGHT, BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY,
WITH HIGHS RISING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT, THOUGH GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS
IT MOVES INTO A LOWER-INSTABILITY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE OVER OUR
AREA. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HOWEVER, THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE RATHER LOW,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN HREF MEAN OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR <30 KTS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH PROBABILITY OF >1" BEING ~10% IS
RATHER LOW, MEANING THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS VERY LOW. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A VERY
WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. IT'S POSSIBLE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE LOW
TRACK, AND HOW MUCH HEAT/HUMIDITY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR (WHICH AS TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS FORECAST).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH 80S RETURN ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONTINUED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR MVFR BR ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS (KFDY/KMFD/KYNG)
BETWEEN 08-12Z/SAT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO TERMINALS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH
THIS TAF PACKAGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 TSRA GROUP
AT KTOL TONIGHT AND KCLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FUTURE TAF
PACKAGES AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE LIKELY TRACK OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS BETTER REALIZED.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS THIS MORNING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH 8-10 KNOT NORTHERLY
WINDS AT KCLE AND KERI.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVES BUILD TO 2-4 FEET ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS 8-12 KNOTS RETURN BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET OR LESS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED ON
MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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