715
FXUS61 KCLE 161808
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
208 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, WITH LIGHT, BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY,
WITH HIGHS RISING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT, THOUGH GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS
IT MOVES INTO A LOWER-INSTABILITY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE OVER OUR
AREA. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. HOWEVER, THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE RATHER LOW,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN HREF MEAN OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR <30 KTS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH PROBABILITY OF >1" BEING ~10% IS
RATHER LOW, MEANING THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS VERY LOW. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A VERY
WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. IT'S POSSIBLE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE LOW
TRACK, AND HOW MUCH HEAT/HUMIDITY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR (WHICH AS TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS FORECAST).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH 80S RETURN ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION AND ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW
REGARDING THE TIMING, THOUGH THE COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND 08-09Z AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. A PROB30 GROUP WAS
ADDED IN FOR A FEW HOURS FOR EACH SITE FOR TSRA AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER THE
FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON, THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THOSE, OPTED TO LEAVE OFF FOR THIS ROUND OF TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, AND FOR THE
WESTERN TERMINALS WINDS HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS DEVELOP FOR A FEW SITES ALONG
THE LAKE AND ARE SEEING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE, THEN VEER OUT OF THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY,
SHIFTING WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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