286
FXUS61 KCLE 161841
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
241 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN BY THE OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP WITH PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON, AS THERE IS A CAP IN THE 750-800 MB
LAYER, THAT IS DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. DEW POINTS HAVE SLIGHTLY
UNDERPERFORMED WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING UNDER 70 DEGREES AND
THIS IS ALSO DRIVING RAIN COVERAGE DOWN. BELIEVE THERE REMAINS A
WINDOW FOR SOME ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL KEEP A 20-30 POP FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. THE MAIN SHOW
IS PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS WOULD PROJECT
THIS LINE TO GO INTO INDIANA AND BE A PROBLEM FOR AREAS WEST.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO ENTER
NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS TO
REFLECT THAT POTENTIAL. THIS IS ALSO THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
SPC MARGINAL RISK THAT REMAINS FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
FOR SUNDAY, THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE A MIXTURE OF MID-RANGE POPS, AS BEST
TIMING REMAINS A TOUCH UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO DRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR MONDAY, WEATHER SHOULD START RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH A FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. LATER IN THE DAY, THIS FEATURE WILL BE
LIFTED NORTH, AS THE LOW MOVES EAST, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
START TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON TUESDAY, AS THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE SIGNAL FOR SHOWER AND STORM ON ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY HAS
REMAINED CONSISTENT AND WILL CONTINUE THE INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN
POPS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
SOME MARGINAL, CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TUESDAY,
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LARGER SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE FOR STORMS WITH
A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, AND THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME
SPOTS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY,
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL EVOLUTION OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. WILL
RETAIN SOME FORM OF CHANCE POPS, BUT COULD SEE WEDNESDAY TREND
DRIER. OTHERWISE, THE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK REMAINS
GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. THERE
WILL BE A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THE PATTERN COULD CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AND RETURN FLOW ENTERING THE
REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO SPUR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. HOWEVER, IT WILL ALL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH MAY GET HELD
UP BY HURRICANE ERIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION AND ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW
REGARDING THE TIMING, THOUGH THE COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND 08-09Z AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. A PROB30 GROUP WAS
ADDED IN FOR A FEW HOURS FOR EACH SITE FOR TSRA AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER THE
FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON, THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THOSE, OPTED TO LEAVE OFF FOR THIS ROUND OF TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, AND FOR THE
WESTERN TERMINALS WINDS HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS DEVELOP FOR A FEW SITES ALONG
THE LAKE AND ARE SEEING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE, THEN VEER OUT OF THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY,
SHIFTING WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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