244
FXUS61 KCLE 170009
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
809 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..00Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN BY THE OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP WITH PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON, AS THERE IS A CAP IN THE 750-800 MB
LAYER, THAT IS DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. DEW POINTS HAVE SLIGHTLY
UNDERPERFORMED WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING UNDER 70 DEGREES AND
THIS IS ALSO DRIVING RAIN COVERAGE DOWN. BELIEVE THERE REMAINS A
WINDOW FOR SOME ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL KEEP A 20-30 POP FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. THE MAIN SHOW
IS PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS WOULD PROJECT
THIS LINE TO GO INTO INDIANA AND BE A PROBLEM FOR AREAS WEST.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO ENTER
NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS TO
REFLECT THAT POTENTIAL. THIS IS ALSO THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
SPC MARGINAL RISK THAT REMAINS FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
FOR SUNDAY, THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE A MIXTURE OF MID-RANGE POPS, AS BEST
TIMING REMAINS A TOUCH UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO DRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR MONDAY, WEATHER SHOULD START RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH A FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. LATER IN THE DAY, THIS FEATURE WILL BE
LIFTED NORTH, AS THE LOW MOVES EAST, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
START TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON TUESDAY, AS THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE SIGNAL FOR SHOWER AND STORM ON ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY HAS
REMAINED CONSISTENT AND WILL CONTINUE THE INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN
POPS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
SOME MARGINAL, CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TUESDAY,
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LARGER SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE FOR STORMS WITH
A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, AND THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME
SPOTS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY,
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL EVOLUTION OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. WILL
RETAIN SOME FORM OF CHANCE POPS, BUT COULD SEE WEDNESDAY TREND
DRIER. OTHERWISE, THE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK REMAINS
GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. THERE
WILL BE A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THE PATTERN COULD CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AND RETURN FLOW ENTERING THE
REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO SPUR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. HOWEVER, IT WILL ALL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH MAY GET HELD
UP BY HURRICANE ERIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER IS THAT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CONVECTION TO IMPACT TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. AS FOR THIS EVENING, THERE IS SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NWOH THAT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
THE TOL AIRPORT THROUGH 02Z. WE HAVE A TEMPO FOR TOL FOR A
COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VCTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
-TSRA WITH 3SM TO 5SM VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND BROKEN CEILINGS AT
3000 FEET IF ANY CONVECTION MOVES OVER THE AIRFIELD THROUGH
02Z THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY VFR WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE EXPECTED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION
POTENTIAL IN THE TAF WITH PROB30 GROUPS STARTING EARLIEST AT 08Z
FOR NWOH AND GRADUALLY LATER IN TIME FURTHER EAST INTO NEOH AND
NWPA. FOR TOL AND FDY, THE TIME PERIOD HIGHLIGHTED IS 08Z TO
12Z. FOR MFD AND CLE, THE TIME WINDOW IS ROUGHLY 10Z TO 14Z
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AND FOR CAK, YNG, AND ERI, THE TIME PERIOD
IS 11Z TO 14Z. THE PROB30 IS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF IMPACTS
TO AVIATION WITH LOWER CEILINGS DOWN TO 3000 FEET AND
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM TO 5SM WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORM THAT
COMES WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. FOR MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AFTER 13Z, WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
2500-3000 FEET AT MFD, CLE, AND ERI. THOSE MARGINAL MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIFT BACK INTO VFR CATEGORY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING OR A LIGHT
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY 8 TO 12 KNOTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT CLE AND ERI MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY,
SHIFTING WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...77
MARINE...23
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