471
FXUS61 KCLE 170800
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN BY THE OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH THIS MORNING.
STARTING TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THIS FRONT,
AND SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT'S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 20-25 KNOTS
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, THOUGH IT'S A PRETTY LOW PROBABILITY GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKSIDE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR LAKE ERIE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL EXTEND A SURFACE
RIDGE INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST REGION ON TUESDAY, BRINGING
A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MILD ADVECTION OF WARM, MOIST AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A
MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR.
WESTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AT 700-500MB MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
FOR MARGINALLY ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH MOST OF THE PARAMTER-SPACE IS RELATIVELY
MARGINAL. EVEN SO, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SYSTEM.
POST-FRONTAL, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
80, BUT REBOUND BACK TO THE MID 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP
SOUTH ACROSS TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
MVFR IMPACTS IN TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z THIS MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 3500 TO 6000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS SHOULD
LIFT ABOVE 6000 FEET BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 6 KNOTS OR LESS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL TURN WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING WHILE INCREASING TO 8-12 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS OF 18 TO 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KCLE AND
KERI. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL DECREASE TO
8 KNOTS OR LESS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
WESTERLY WINDS 8-12 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD TO 3-6 FEET
NEAR AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS NEARSHORE ZONES WILL SUBSIDE TO
1-3 FEET MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING NEAR THE ISLANDS AND POINTS
EAST. WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL WAVER BETWEEN EASTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15
KNOTS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. OUTSIDE OF WINDS AND WAVES, THERE WILL BE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR LEZ143>149.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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