890
FXUS61 KCLE 171809
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
209 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN BY THE OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH THIS MORNING.
STARTING TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THIS FRONT,
AND SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT'S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 20-25 KNOTS
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, THOUGH IT'S A PRETTY LOW PROBABILITY GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKSIDE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR LAKE ERIE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL EXTEND A SURFACE
RIDGE INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST REGION ON TUESDAY, BRINGING
A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MILD ADVECTION OF WARM, MOIST AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A
MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR.
WESTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AT 700-500MB MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
FOR MARGINALLY ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH MOST OF THE PARAMTER-SPACE IS RELATIVELY
MARGINAL. EVEN SO, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SYSTEM.
POST-FRONTAL, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
80, BUT REBOUND BACK TO THE MID 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS CLEARED ALL
TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
KERI COULD SEE SOME VCSH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA AFTER 22Z THIS EVENING. KCLE AND KERI ARE SEEING MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 20-22Z AS WINDS VEER TO BE MORE EAST OF
NORTH THIS EVENING. CEILINGS OF 050-070 WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW UNTIL IT SCATTERS OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING AROUND KMFD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS
IMPACTS FOR THE AIRFIELD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONALLY GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH AND MOVES EASTWARD, WINDS WILL VEER TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTH THEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
WINDS ARE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE LAKE AT 15-20 KNOTS
AND WILL VEER TO BE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS. THE INCREASED WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING WITH A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-6
FEET ON MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED WINDS FROM THE ISLANDS
EASTWARD STARTING LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND SUBSIDE FROM EAST TO
WEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INCREASE WINDS AND
WAVES AND IS VALID FROM 4PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8PM MONDAY.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER SPOUTS THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
ON TUESDAY, WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FEET WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO BE SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF
THE NORTH AT 5-10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO
END THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OHZ007-
009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ143>149.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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