509
FXUS61 KCLE 171917
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
317 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND REACH THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FEATURE AND INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE SOUTH
OF US 30 OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HANG ON THROUGH THE EVENING IN FAR NE OH AND NW PA. COLD AIR
OVER WARM LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SOME ENHANCED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FIRMLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH A COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AHEAD
OF THE LOW, A WARM FRONT WILL GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY, BUT THE TRENDS IN THE FRONT ARE SLOWER AND PROGRESSING
LESS NORTH, SO TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE MUTE THAN
PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE, EXPECTING LESS ACTIVITY WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND
HAVE LOWER POPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE LOW WILL EXTEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE TREND WILL BE TO DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 80S FOR THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY AND
REMAIN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THIS
FEATURE AT THE SURFACE, WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. FOR
THE WEEKEND, A TROUGH OVER CANADA WILL SWING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND EXTEND A FRONT INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE, SOME
MINOR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL UNCERTAIN ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THIS
COLD FRONT ENTER WITH THE HURRICANE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST
LIKELY SLOWING UP THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS CLEARED ALL
TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
KERI COULD SEE SOME VCSH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA AFTER 22Z THIS EVENING. KCLE AND KERI ARE SEEING MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 20-22Z AS WINDS VEER TO BE MORE EAST OF
NORTH THIS EVENING. CEILINGS OF 050-070 WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW UNTIL IT SCATTERS OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING AROUND KMFD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS
IMPACTS FOR THE AIRFIELD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONALLY GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTH AND MOVES EASTWARD, WINDS WILL VEER TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTH THEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
WINDS ARE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE LAKE AT 15-20 KNOTS
AND WILL VEER TO BE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS. THE INCREASED WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING WITH A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-6
FEET ON MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED WINDS FROM THE ISLANDS
EASTWARD STARTING LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND SUBSIDE FROM EAST TO
WEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INCREASE WINDS AND
WAVES AND IS VALID FROM 4PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8PM MONDAY.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER SPOUTS THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
ON TUESDAY, WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FEET WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO BE SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF
THE NORTH AT 5-10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO
END THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OHZ007-
009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ143>149.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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