636
FXUS61 KCLE 181730
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL EXIT ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LESS
HUMID TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE LOW 60S FOR MOST, LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE LIFTING A WARM FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. BETTER JET SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH
OF THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AND MORE HUMID ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST
ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL GLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WITH MINOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME PATCHY INLAND FOG CAN'T COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY NON-
VFR CONDITIONS IS STILL FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS POINT. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KTOL/KFDY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OPTED FOR VCSH AT THESE SITES
WITH THIS UPDATE, BUT MAY NEED TO ADD PREVAILING SHOWERS AND
LIKELY EXPAND SHOWER CHANCES EAST BEYOND 18Z IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL NON-VFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WAVES IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET
RANGE, MAINLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS (THOUGHT 2-3 FT WAVES WILL BE
COMMON WEST OF THE ISLANDS). A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. A WEAK LOW MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, RESULTING IN QUICKLY VEERING WINDS. THIS
MEANS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING, TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OUR
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AROUND 10-40% CHANCE OF
>20 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH WOULD PRODUCE 3-5 FT WAVES
AND SUBSEQUENT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS AND SWIMMERS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ143>149.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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