530
FXUS61 KCLE 181834
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
234 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER ONTARIO THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CREATING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THERE WILL
BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH THIS WILL BE ISOLATED GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR
LACK OF FORCING. TIMING WILL BE KEY AS WELL AS IT WILL BE FOCUSED
MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-77 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD AND THE POTENTIAL WILL DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT
PROGRESS EAST AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE
COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S. SOME LOW AREAS OUT EAST
MAY DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY WITH PASSING WARM FRONT AND BE IN
THE MID 80S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST BY MID WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS
THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AS NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 60S DOWN
TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THE LOW AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THROUGH THE WEEKEND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
80S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN
BEING THE MID TO LOW 60S THEN DROPPING INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME PATCHY INLAND FOG CAN'T COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY NON-
VFR CONDITIONS IS STILL FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS POINT. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KTOL/KFDY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OPTED FOR VCSH AT THESE SITES
WITH THIS UPDATE, BUT MAY NEED TO ADD PREVAILING SHOWERS AND
LIKELY EXPAND SHOWER CHANCES EAST BEYOND 18Z IN FUTURE UPDATES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL NON-VFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WAVES IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET
RANGE, MAINLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS (THOUGHT 2-3 FT WAVES WILL BE
COMMON WEST OF THE ISLANDS). A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. A WEAK LOW MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, RESULTING IN QUICKLY VEERING WINDS. THIS
MEANS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING, TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OUR
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AROUND 10-40% CHANCE OF
>20 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH WOULD PRODUCE 3-5 FT WAVES
AND SUBSEQUENT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS AND SWIMMERS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ143>149.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...15
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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