854
FXUS61 KCLE 190753
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CHICAGOLAND AREA
IN AN AREA OF INCREASED INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.
THESE DECAYING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER IT WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, BUT IF THEY DO THE
PRIMARY HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WINDS. OVERALL FORCING LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED IN A SYNOPTIC SENSE, AND DEPENDING HOW LONG THE
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER STICKS AROUND,
THERE COULD BE LIMITED MESOSCALE FEATURES TO WORK WITH AS WELL. WEAK
SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST LIMITED SUPPORT FOR ROBUST STORMS. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WEATHER BECOMING SEVERE IS PRETTY LOW GIVEN THE
OVERALL WEAK FORCING AND EARLY CONVECTION, BUT IF CONDITIONS DID
BECOME IDEAL, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY HAPPEN IN A CORRIDOR FROM I75 TO
JUST EAST OF I77 AND SOUTH. TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK, SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA,
PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST, ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF I71 ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST
BUT MOISTURE LINGERS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SHOWERS
ON WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S,
COOLING A BIT MORE IN NWPA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
60S. A COOL DOWN WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NUDGES SOUTH. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATELY RETURN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL MARK A
TRANSITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY DEVELOPING NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE ERIE ALONG
WITH INSTABILITY FROM THE LAKE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, FALLING INTO THE
LOW 60S ON SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. BRIEF, ISOLATED PERIODS MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SHRA AND VCSH ARE MENTIONED IN TAFS BUT
HELD OFF ON TSRA/VCTS DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION/TIMING OF STORMS. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT, LOW CEILINGS DOWN TO
IFR ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS.
ADDITIONAL NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY EAST OF I-77.
MARINE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AS THE THE LOWS
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE.
WINDS BECOME EAST-NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, STRENGTHENING TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS A NEAR GUARANTEE THAT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THIS TIME FRAME FOR MUCH OF LAKE ERIE, MAINLY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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