281
FXUS61 KCLE 192007
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
407 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
OVER THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ON SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FIRST
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER, WHICH WAS DRIVEN BY WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT E AND NE OF THE RETREATING WARM
FRONT, HAS WEAKENED OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA. THE AIRMASS IS
RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLIER ROUND, WHERE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE HAVE ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S
IN MUCH OF NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS
THAT RAPIDLY INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR
HAS ALLOWED MLCAPE VALUES TO REACH 500-1000 J/KG IN NW AND NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. THERE IS NO CAPPING IN PLACE, SO AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CONTINUE TO INCREASE AIDED BY
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 50-65 KNOT H3 JET STREAK CROSSING CENTRAL
MICHIGAN, CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. HREF ENSEMBLES AND INDIVIDUAL CAM
MEMBERS HAVE STRUGGLED ALL DAY WITH THE TIMING, EVOLUTION, AND
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION, BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE
INITIALIZING SLIGHTLY BETTER BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
EXPECT THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
FROM WESTERN LAKE ERIE TO WYANDOT COUNTY TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING, AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
MAIN SHOW. THE MARGINAL CAPE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINED WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KNOTS NEAR THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE SWODY1 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THIS
THREAT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED, WITH WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED VORTICITY PASSING
OVERHEAD, CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED, BRIEF SPIN UP
TORNADO EITHER, BUT THIS IS LOWER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO THE
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
CONVECTION GIVEN PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE.
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION BY 00Z, BUT PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL HANG BACK OVER THE
AREA, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-77, MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION SLOWS OVER THE APPALACHIANS COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED UPPER JET SUPPORT AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, SO INCREASED POPS OVER EASTERN
AREAS TONIGHT. THE BEST MID/UPPER FORCING DEPARTS WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HURRICANE
ERIN LIFTING NORTH OFFSHORE OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS WILL
CAUSE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO DRIFT
WESTWARD INTO OUR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO
KEPT POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN RAW NBM. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CERTAINLY NO WASHOUTS),
BUT ELEVATED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND, SLIGHTLY DELAYING THE TRANSITION TO THE BEAUTIFUL
UPCOMING WEATHER.
HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL
STILL BE RATHER MUGGY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70, BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FINALLY STARTING TO BUILD SOUTH, SO EXPECT
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL FINALLY PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH, SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WORK INTO THE REGION. THE CANADIAN HIGH COMBINED
WITH MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE
REGION, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S THURSDAY AND UPPER
70S/LOW 80S FRIDAY. LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S, WITH SOME MID 50S IN INTERIOR
NE OHIO AND NW PA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID PATTERN WILL TURN EVEN COOLER FOR THE
EXTENDED RANGE AS A DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK (AND LIKELY BEYOND) BRINGING THE
COOLEST AIRMASS SINCE THIS PAST SPRING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LAKE-
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE "SNOWBELT" OF NE OHIO AND NW PA
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S F AND 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO 5 TO 7 C AND WHAT LOOKS
TO BE WELL- ALIGNED W TO NW FLOW. IT IS GETTING TO BE THAT TIME
OF YEAR!
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
BEFORE COOLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S SUNDAY AND ONLY LOW 70S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MORNING SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED
TO LIGHT RAIN, ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EAST OF KTOL/KFDY. THESE SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO GRASP
PRECIPITATION THUS FAR TODAY, BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PEAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH
TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER
CHANCES. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THINGS EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE AT KCLE/KYNG/KERI INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MVFR WILL SPREAD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY SEEPING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT/LOW NEAR 06Z WEDNESDAY. THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE DENSITY OF THE FOG AND
RESULTING IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME. KERI MAY MAINTAIN VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR QUITE SOME TIME
DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPING; FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY
NOT DETERIORATE MUCH UNTIL THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 12
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE AS THE LOW CROSSES
THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ADDITIONAL NON-VFR POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY EAST
OF I-77.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM RENO BEACH OH EAST FROM 00Z/8
PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS/WAVES MAY BE
LOWER IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN GIVEN THE SHORTER FETCH SO HAVE
HELD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THIS AREA; MAY NEED TO ADD MAUMEE BAY
TO RENO BEACH IN A FUTURE UPDATE IF WINDS/WAVES TREND HIGHER.
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW/COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF
NOW, MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIMITS, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND/WAVE
TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR OHZ007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LEZ143>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LEZ149.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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