448
FXUS61 KCLE 201748
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE A COLD
FRONT EAST ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
10:05 AM UPDATE...
SLIGHT EXPANSION WESTWARD OF THE LOW END POPS FOR TODAY AND
ADDED SPRINKLES ON THE FRINGE FOR THOSE POPS. SLIGHT DECREASE IN
MAX TEMPERATURE VALUES AS WELL, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
GRADUALLY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. BEHIND THIS DEPARTING FRONT,
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS REGULATED TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
AS WELL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. FOR
NOW, HAVE ISOLATED THE POTENTIAL TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-71,
BUT WILL MONITOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ANY FURTHER WESTWARD EXTENT.
BY MID-MORNING, ALL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP
SHOULD DEPART TO THE EAST, HOWEVER A BRIEF STINT OF ONSHORE FLOW AND
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE MAY RESULT IN
PERIODIC LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULE OUT. BY TONIGHT, A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA AND
ALLOW ALL PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THURSDAY.
COOLER HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S, POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
ON SATURDAY, A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AND WILL MARK A TRANSITION TO
ABNORMALLY COOL TEMPERATURES INTO THE NEAR FUTURE. DIVING A BIT
DEEPER INTO THE SETUP ON SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR THE AREA TO BE IN AN
IDEAL LOCATION FOR SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE TRICKY PART WITH
THIS FORECAST, IS THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL SLOW AND POSSIBLY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS
HAPPENS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREAS MAY POSE A RISK OF
FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY MORE
AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS. ON SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LIKELY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 5 TO 8C. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN SHOWERS. THE BULK OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO THE PRIMARY
SNOWBELT REGION, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS A BIT FURTHER
INLAND. THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL LIKELY ALSO INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WATERSPOUTS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. ON TUESDAY, A CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA, GRADUALLY DRYING UP LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUNDAY HIGHS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AFTER THAT, THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY CPC
OUTLOOKS DO PLACE THE ENTIRE MIDWEST IN AN AREA OF LIKELY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SO THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING
TO STICK AROUND FOR A BIT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ALOFT, NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH 18Z/THURS AS A TROUGH EXITS E'WARD AND A RIDGE BUILDS
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH
AXIS LINGERS IN VICINITY OF WESTERN PA AND WV AS A RIDGE BUILDS
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER GRADUALLY FROM NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY AND TREND
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS VARYING BETWEEN PRIMARILY
500 FT AND 3000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DIURNAL WARMING AND SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ADDED MOISTURE VIA ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW FROM
LAKE ERIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY TO IMPACT NE OH AND NW
PA THROUGH ~22Z/WED. NOTE: SUFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING AMIDST
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PERMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS, LOCALIZED LIFR CEILINGS, AND MIST WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-71, BETWEEN ~04Z/THURS
AND ~14Z/THURS.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN FAR-NE OH
AND NW PA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NON-VFR
POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, WINDS VEER TO OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
RENO BEACH OH EAST FROM 00Z/8 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUED TO HOLD OFF ISSUING HEADLINES FOR MAUMEE
BAY TO RENO BEACH; HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR >20
KNOT WINDS THERE, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
WATERSPOUTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE LAKE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING HIGH ON SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR OHZ007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ143>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ149.
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04/26
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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