818
FXUS61 KCLE 201825
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
225 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO BE SOCKED IN WITH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE SLOW TO LIFT AND ERODE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE ERIN, MAKING ITS NORTHWARD
TRACK IN THE ATLANTIC, WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA, BUT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING MODEST WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING AGAIN
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE
DISTANCE BETWEEN OUR AREA AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INCREASES AGAIN AS
IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD WHILE PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED. MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL CLEAR OUT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS AWAY FORM THE LAKESHORE AND THE
PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS, BUT THE
FORECAST IS LARGELY DRY BEYOND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY
COOL FOR THIS TYPE OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A DEEP, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH AN
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. A LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS RENEWS POPS FOR THE EASTERN CWA
SATURDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL HAVE RESIDED
BRIEFLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH,
LIKELY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME THAT WILL DICTATE MORE EARLY
FALL TYPE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE, WILL BE ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A CANADIAN AIRMASS
SPILLING INTO THE REGION, AND 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN WELL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. NORTHERLY WINDS AND LIKELY LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS DUE TO THE HIGH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND THE LAKE WATER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
STORY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL NOT COME OUT OF THE 60S FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA AS A RESULT, LOW TO MID 70S WESTWARD
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ALOFT, NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH 18Z/THURS AS A TROUGH EXITS E'WARD AND A RIDGE BUILDS
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH
AXIS LINGERS IN VICINITY OF WESTERN PA AND WV AS A RIDGE BUILDS
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER GRADUALLY FROM NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY AND TREND
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS VARYING BETWEEN PRIMARILY
500 FT AND 3000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DIURNAL WARMING AND SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER, AND WEAK LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OVER ~76F LAKE ERIE, SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY TO OCCUR
OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN OH AND NW PA THROUGH
~22Z/WED. NOTE: SUFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING AMIDST LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PERMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS, LOCALIZED LIFR CEILINGS, AND MIST WITH MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-71, BETWEEN ~04Z/THURS AND
~14Z/THURS.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN FAR-NE OH
AND NW PA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NON-VFR
POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, WINDS VEER TO OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
RENO BEACH OH EAST FROM 00Z/8 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUED TO HOLD OFF ISSUING HEADLINES FOR MAUMEE
BAY TO RENO BEACH; HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR >20
KNOT WINDS THERE, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
WATERSPOUTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE LAKE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING HIGH ON SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR OHZ007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ143>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ149.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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