683
FXUS61 KCLE 080503
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT. SOME CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FEATURE, BUT
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND MAY DRIFT INTO NE
OH AND NW PA THIS MORNING. HAVE SOME 20% POPS TO REFLECT SOME RAIN
CHANCES THIS AM. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
COOLED OFF QUICKLY AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN TO HAVE SOME UPPER
30S IN NE OH/NW PA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BACKING FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR RAIN TO STOP WITH SOME WARMER
RETURN FLOW ENTERING BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL WITH 60S AND 70S.
WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE,
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE 30S AND 40S LIKE THIS MORNING AND FROST POTENTIAL
WILL MISS THE AREA JUST OFF TO THE EAST IN PA/NY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
WARMER RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BE BACK TOWARD NORMAL IN
THE 70S ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION FOR THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE IN
THE REGION AND ONLY A MARGINALLY COOLER AIR MASS THAT WILL NOT
GENERATE ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND RETAIN THE DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SEASONABLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO START
THE WEEKEND. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST FOR SATURDAY INTO THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. FOR SUNDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION TO GIVE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN; HOWEVER,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO JUST MISS THE AREA ENTIRELY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MORE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE. WILL
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD REMAIN SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARILY VFR TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE IN REGARDS TO RAIN
CHANCES AT CLE/ERI (KEPT VCSH AT ERI OVERNIGHT AND EXCLUDED ANY
MENTION FROM CLE).
FOR THE MOST PART, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS), AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. A
LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT CLE/ERI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
USHERING IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEFORE GLIDING EAST OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY. THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
FAVORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN ANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...13
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