861
FXUS61 KCLE 081036
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT. SOME CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FEATURE, BUT
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND MAY DRIFT INTO NE
OH AND NW PA THIS MORNING. HAVE SOME 20% POPS TO REFLECT SOME RAIN
CHANCES THIS AM. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
COOLED OFF QUICKLY AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN TO HAVE SOME UPPER
30S IN NE OH/NW PA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BACKING FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR RAIN TO STOP WITH SOME WARMER
RETURN FLOW ENTERING BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL WITH 60S AND 70S.
WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE,
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE 30S AND 40S LIKE THIS MORNING AND FROST POTENTIAL
WILL MISS THE AREA JUST OFF TO THE EAST IN PA/NY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
WARMER RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BE BACK TOWARD NORMAL IN
THE 70S ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION FOR THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE IN
THE REGION AND ONLY A MARGINALLY COOLER AIR MASS THAT WILL NOT
GENERATE ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND RETAIN THE DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SEASONABLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO START
THE WEEKEND. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST FOR SATURDAY INTO THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. FOR SUNDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION TO GIVE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN; HOWEVER,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO JUST MISS THE AREA ENTIRELY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MORE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE. WILL
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD REMAIN SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FLOW ALOFT BACKS GRADUALLY FROM WNW'ERLY TO PRIMARILY WSW'ERLY
THROUGH 12Z/TUES AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND CENTRAL PA. AT THE
SURFACE, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR REGION AS THE
EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK MSLP GRADIENT
ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TO
BE PRIMARILY CALM OR VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 5 KNOTS IN
MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER, A SE'ERLY TO S'ERLY LAND BREEZE AROUND 5
KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND VERY NEAR LAKE ERIE THROUGH ~14Z/MON
AND AFTER ~02Z/TUES, INCLUDING AT KCLE AND KERI. IN ADDITION, A
A NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY LAKE BREEZE AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD IMPACT
THE SAME AREAS BETWEEN ~17Z/MON AND ~23Z/MON.
VFR, FAIR WEATHER, AND PRIMARILY CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI
WITH BASES NEAR 5KFT AGL ACROSS FAR-NE OH AND NW PA ARE EXPECTED
TO EXIT TO THE ESE AND/OR DISSIPATE BY 14Z/MON. OTHERWISE,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CUMULI WITH BASES NEAR 5KFT AGL WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP VIA DAYTIME WARMING OVER NORTHERN OH AND NW PA
BETWEEN ~15Z/MON AND ~23Z/MON, OUTSIDE OF THE EXPECTED LAKE
BREEZE.
OUTLOOK...CURRENT ODDS FAVOR WIDESPREAD VFR THIS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MARINE
A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. PRIMARILY NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, BUT A S'ERLY LAND BREEZE AROUND
5 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST, IF NOT ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
OF OH AND PA THROUGH THIS LATE MORNING. THE LAND BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE-EFFECT CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AND MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS AND ISOLATED LAKE-EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK. DURING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL TREND VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 5 KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TREND ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WAVES REMAIN 2 FEET OR
LESS.
DURING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT SLOWLY NE'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE. WINDS BECOME
E'ERLY TO SE'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ONSHORE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AS ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO FORM.
DURING TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME PRIMARILY SE'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD BECOME ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO RENEWED LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WAVES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP S'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND CAUSE PRIMARILY S'ERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO VEER TO MAINLY N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY AS
WAVES REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS FRIDAY AS THE PARENT
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PRIMARILY BE NE'ERLY TO
E'ERLY, BUT SHOULD TREND ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO DAILY LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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