314
FXUS61 KCLE 090512
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
112 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER TODAY WITH MID 70S AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MID-TO-UPPER 70S. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND BETTER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE LAKE AND LAND WILL
HELP A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE LESS COOL IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHILE THESE BROADER LIFTING MECHANISMS EXIST, THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH A CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S AND 50S, WHERE ANY RAIN GENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION, THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER WITH THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH, SO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR THE SECOND HALF, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY WEATHER REMAINS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A BIT HIGHER WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE IS STILL SOME LOW POTENTIAL IN THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN
BREAKING FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ANY RAIN WOULD
CERTAINLY NOT BE A DROUGHT-BUSTER OR RUIN ANY WEEKEND OUTDOOR
PLANS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST US, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL US AND ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE UPPER TROUGH WOULD
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, WHICH
WOULD EXTEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. THE CONCERN FOR RAIN
POTENTIAL IS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT WITH A WARMER,
BUT DRIER AIR MASS AND THE RAIN WOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD BE DRY. WITH THAT,
HAVE SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY COME DOWN A BIT TOWARD NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ALOFT, WNW'ERLY FLOW BACKS TO SW'ERLY OVER OUR ENTIRE REGION BY
15Z/TUES AND THEN REMAINS SW'ERLY THROUGH 06Z/WED AS A RIDGE
AXIS MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
NE'WARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO NEWFOUNDLAND. OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS WILL TEND TO BE EITHER VARIABLE IN DIRECTION OR
SE'ERLY AND AROUND 5 KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER, A LAKE BREEZE
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND VERY NEAR LAKE ERIE BETWEEN ~17Z/TUES AND
~00Z/WED, INCLUDING AT KCLE AND KERI.
FAIR WEATHER AND PRIMARILY VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHERN OH AND NW PA, AND LOCALIZED RADIATION FOG IS
EXPECTED IN FAR-NW OH, INCLUDING AT KTOL. FOG WILL VARY IN
DENSITY AND THEREFORE RESULTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL VARY
BETWEEN MVFR AND LIFR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z
AND 14Z/TUES, FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF DAYTIME WARMING AND
RESULTING CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER AND VFR ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
SATURDAY.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
GENERALLY TREND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...13
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