497
FXUS61 KCLE 091019
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
619 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER TODAY WITH MID 70S AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MID-TO-UPPER 70S. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND BETTER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE LAKE AND LAND WILL
HELP A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE LESS COOL IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHILE THESE BROADER LIFTING MECHANISMS EXIST, THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH A CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S AND 50S, WHERE ANY RAIN GENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION, THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER WITH THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH, SO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR THE SECOND HALF, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY WEATHER REMAINS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A BIT HIGHER WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE IS STILL SOME LOW POTENTIAL IN THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN
BREAKING FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ANY RAIN WOULD
CERTAINLY NOT BE A DROUGHT-BUSTER OR RUIN ANY WEEKEND OUTDOOR
PLANS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST US, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL US AND ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE UPPER TROUGH WOULD
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, WHICH
WOULD EXTEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. THE CONCERN FOR RAIN
POTENTIAL IS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT WITH A WARMER,
BUT DRIER AIR MASS AND THE RAIN WOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD BE DRY. WITH THAT,
HAVE SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY COME DOWN A BIT TOWARD NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ALOFT, W'ERLY TO PRIMARILY SW'ERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER OUR
REGION AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND VICINITY. AT THE SURFACE, THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT NORTHERN OH AND NW PA AS THE EMBEDDED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NE'WARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS WILL TEND TO BE
EITHER VARIABLE IN DIRECTION OR SE'ERLY AND AROUND 5 KNOTS IN
MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER, A NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND VERY NEAR LAKE ERIE BETWEEN ~17Z/TUES AND
~00Z/WED, INCLUDING AT KCLE AND KERI.
FAIR WEATHER AND PRIMARILY VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG IN NORTHERN OH AND NW
PA, AND LOCALIZED RADIATION FOG IN FAR-NW OH, INCLUDING AT
KTOL, IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z/TUES,
FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF DAYTIME WARMING AND RESULTING CONVECTIVE
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BEFORE DISSIPATION, FOG WILL VARY
IN DENSITY AND RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS VARYING BETWEEN
MVFR AND LIFR. FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE SAME AREAS BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z/WED, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT RESPECT.
OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER AND VFR ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
SATURDAY.
MARINE
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 12 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS
SLOWLY NE'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRIMARILY
SE'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS OF TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO DAILY LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP GENERALLY S'WARD
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT'S PASSAGE WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
SE'ERLY TO S'ERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE WILL IMPACT LAKE ERIE THROUGH
THIS SATURDAY AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM
THE JAMES BAY AREA TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MAINLY NE'ERLY TO
E'ERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT
WINDS WILL TREND ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS OF BOTH DAYS DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO VARY BETWEEN PRIMARILY E'ERLY AND SW'ERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD TREND
ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO RENEWED
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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