715
FXUS61 KCLE 091729
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
129 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER TODAY WITH MID 70S AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MID-TO-UPPER 70S. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND BETTER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE LAKE AND LAND WILL
HELP A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE LESS COOL IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHILE THESE BROADER LIFTING MECHANISMS EXIST, THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH A CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S AND 50S, WHERE ANY RAIN GENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION, THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER WITH THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH, SO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR THE SECOND HALF, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY WEATHER REMAINS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A BIT HIGHER WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE IS STILL SOME LOW POTENTIAL IN THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN
BREAKING FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ANY RAIN WOULD
CERTAINLY NOT BE A DROUGHT-BUSTER OR RUIN ANY WEEKEND OUTDOOR
PLANS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST US, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL US AND ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE UPPER TROUGH WOULD
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, WHICH
WOULD EXTEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. THE CONCERN FOR RAIN
POTENTIAL IS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT WITH A WARMER,
BUT DRIER AIR MASS AND THE RAIN WOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD BE DRY. WITH THAT,
HAVE SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY COME DOWN A BIT TOWARD NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES, HOWEVER SOME
HIGHER WINDS 8-12 KNOTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS.
ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KCLE AND KERI WILL FLIP
NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER AND VFR ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
SATURDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
TURN WINDS NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL TURN WINDS
ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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