948
FXUS61 KCLE 100528
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SOME NORTHERLY FLOW ADJACENT TO LAKE ERIE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND THESE HIGHS WILL REMAIN STEADY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED WELL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS AND EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AND HAVE A MIX OF 40S AND 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR INCREMENTAL
RISE WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY 80S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY
CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MEAN GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THIS
FRONT AND PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE BETTER SUPPORT TO
THE EAST, REMAIN SKEPTICAL ON MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOCAL
AREA, BUT WILL RETAIN SOME 20% POPS FOR NOW. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL
WILL BE LOW QPF AND LARGELY INCONSEQUENTIAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD AND SQUASHING ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE COLD
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, THERE COULD BE SOME
LOW RAIN CHANCES CARRYING OVER INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY, BUT
THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALOFT, PRIMARILY SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH 06Z/THURS AS A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NEARS THE LONGITUDE OF KTOL BY 06Z/THURS. AT THE SURFACE, A
RIDGE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FAIR WEATHER AND MAINLY
VFR TO AFFECT NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. HOWEVER, A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT S'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AFTER 00Z/THURS.
A WEAK MSLP GRADIENT ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS TO BE PRIMARILY CALM OR VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND
AROUND 5 KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A
SE'ERLY TO S'ERLY LAND BREEZE AROUND 5 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
VERY NEAR LAKE ERIE, INCLUDING AT KCLE AND KERI, THROUGH ~14Z/WED
AND AGAIN AFTER ~02Z/THURS. IN ADDITION, A NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY LAKE
BREEZE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WITHIN A FEW MILES
OF LAKE ERIE FROM ~16Z/WED UNTIL ~00Z/THURS, WHICH WILL ALSO IMPACT
KCLE AND KERI.
LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG AND RADIATION FOG ARE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT MOST TAF SITES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED.
HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO TUES MORNING, RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT KTOL AND VICINITY AFTER ~09Z/WED. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN
~12Z AND ~13Z/WED, FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF DAYTIME WARMING AND
RESULTING CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER AND VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR POSSIBLE THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
TURN WINDS NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL TURN WINDS
ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...13
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