198
FXUS61 KCLE 101032
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SOME NORTHERLY FLOW ADJACENT TO LAKE ERIE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND THESE HIGHS WILL REMAIN STEADY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED WELL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS AND EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AND HAVE A MIX OF 40S AND 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR INCREMENTAL
RISE WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY 80S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY
CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MEAN GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THIS
FRONT AND PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE BETTER SUPPORT TO
THE EAST, REMAIN SKEPTICAL ON MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOCAL
AREA, BUT WILL RETAIN SOME 20% POPS FOR NOW. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL
WILL BE LOW QPF AND LARGELY INCONSEQUENTIAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD AND SQUASHING ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE COLD
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, THERE COULD BE SOME
LOW RAIN CHANCES CARRYING OVER INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY, BUT
THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALOFT, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT E'WARD AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER OH VALLEY TO NEAR WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE MID OH VALLEY BY 12Z/THURS. SW'ERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS VEERS TO W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY BEHIND THAT AXIS.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT NE'WARD BEFORE A VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT GENERALLY SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AFTER 00Z/THURS AND NEARS A KFDY TO KIAG LINE BY 12Z/THURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, INCLUDING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT.
A WEAK MSLP GRADIENT ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS TO BE PRIMARILY CALM OR VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND
AROUND 5 KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A
SE'ERLY TO S'ERLY LAND BREEZE AROUND 5 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
VERY NEAR LAKE ERIE, INCLUDING AT KCLE AND KERI, THROUGH ~14Z/WED
AND AGAIN AFTER ~02Z/THURS. IN ADDITION, A NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY LAKE
BREEZE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WITHIN A FEW MILES
OF LAKE ERIE FROM ~16Z/WED UNTIL ~00Z/THURS, WHICH WILL ALSO IMPACT
KCLE AND KERI.
RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG AND RADIATION MIST/FOG, LOCALIZED IN
NATURE, ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING. THE MIST/FOG WILL LIKELY NOT
IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES, BUT MIST MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES AT KTOL. MIST AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z/WED, FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME WARMING AND RESULTING CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.
OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER AND VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR POSSIBLE THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 12 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS
NE'WARD BEFORE A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
MAINLY SE'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE, ANOTHER RIDGE AFFECTS LAKE
ERIE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WINDS WILL
VARY BETWEEN NE'ERLY AND SE'ERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL CAUSE THESE WINDS TO
BECOME ONSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME ON FRIDAY. DURING FRIDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY SE'ERLY WINDS VEER TO SW'ERLY DUE TO THE N'WARD PASSAGE
OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY ON
SATURDAY, BUT MAY BECOME ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING DUE TO RENEWED LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. ON SUNDAY,
MAINLY S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS SHOULD VEER TO N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS S'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND IS FOLLOWED
BY A RIDGE BUILDING FROM NORTHERN ON AND VICINITY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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