073
FXUS61 KCLE 101720
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SOME NORTHERLY FLOW ADJACENT TO LAKE ERIE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND THESE HIGHS WILL REMAIN STEADY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED WELL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS AND EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AND HAVE A MIX OF 40S AND 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR INCREMENTAL
RISE WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY 80S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY
CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MEAN GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THIS
FRONT AND PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE BETTER SUPPORT TO
THE EAST, REMAIN SKEPTICAL ON MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOCAL
AREA, BUT WILL RETAIN SOME 20% POPS FOR NOW. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL
WILL BE LOW QPF AND LARGELY INCONSEQUENTIAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD AND SQUASHING ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE COLD
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, THERE COULD BE SOME
LOW RAIN CHANCES CARRYING OVER INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY, BUT
THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE AND DAILY LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AT INLAND TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT AND/OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT/DURATION OF FOG IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT, BUT MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE IT IN A FUTURE UPDATE. INLAND WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE LAKE BREEZE AT KCLE/KERI DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TODAY AND THURSDAY, BUT FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER AND VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR POSSIBLE THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ONSHORE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LAKE
BREEZE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. FLOW WILL LARGELY BE VARIABLE AT AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW
LIKELY DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE DURING EACH AFTERNOON.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY, BUT AS OF NOW MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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