015
FXUS61 KCLE 110509
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
109 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WE'LL CONTINUE THE TREND OF QUIET WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION, A LAKE BREEZE WILL BE EVIDENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BRINGING IN
SOME NORTHERLY FLOW FOR AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE. A
SHORTWAVE, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL START TO MOVE IN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT,
THOUGH WILL STILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH A
SIMILAR STORY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
INCREASE A FEW DEGREES AS WELL FROM TODAY AND SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN ON
THURSDAY WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL US
AND CREEP EASTWARD SLOWLY INTO THE WEEKEND. CONCURRENTLY, UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE FRONT, THERE'S
VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM, SO PRECIPITATION WILL MOST
LIKELY BE SCATTERED WITH LOW QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH
SATURDAY SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER, WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AND END FAIRLY EARLY IN
THE DAY. DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ALOFT, SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA VEERS TO N'ERLY
REGION-WIDE BY 21Z/THURS AND REMAINS N'ERLY THROUGH 06Z/FRI AS
A TROUGH AXIS MOVES FROM NEAR FAR-EASTERN GEORGIAN BAY AND FAR-
WESTERN TN AT 06Z/THURS TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY 06Z/FRI. BEHIND THE TROUGH, A RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A VERY WEAK
AND OVERALL MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT DRIFTS GENERALLY S'WARD
THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, THE RIDGE
BUILDS FROM JAMES BAY AND VICINITY.
OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY CALM OR VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 5 KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS THE MSLP GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG AND VERY NEAR LAKE ERIE, INCLUDING AT KCLE AND KERI. THIS
IS WHERE A SE'ERLY TO S'ERLY LAND BREEZE AROUND 5 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH ~13Z/THURS AND AFTER ~03Z/FRI, AND A NW'ERLY
TO NE'ERLY LAKE BREEZE AROUND 5 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
~16Z/THURS AND ~00Z/FRI.
FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, INCLUDING DURING
THE PASSAGE OF THE OVERALL MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT. MAINLY
VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/FRI. HOWEVER, ISOLATED RIVER VALLEY
STEAM FOG, ISOLATED RADIATION MIST/FOG, AND ASSOCIATED NON-VFR
ARE EXPECTED AFTER ~08Z/THURS AND BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
~13Z/THURS, FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF DAYTIME WARMING. MIST WITH
MVFR VISIBILITY MAY IMPACT KTOL AND VICINITY BETWEEN ~09Z/THURS
AND ~13Z/THURS.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MONDAY.
MARINE
ONSHORE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LAKE
BREEZE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. FLOW WILL LARGELY BE VARIABLE AT AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW
LIKELY DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE DURING EACH AFTERNOON.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY, BUT AS OF NOW MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...15
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