962
FXUS61 KCLE 111025
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
625 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL EXPAND SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY,
THEN GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CANADA
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA. A 1030MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD EAST INTO QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST AND LOW HUMIDITY. SOME PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUD WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, THEN WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN, A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, AND A TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. WE
DO EXPERIENCE SOME RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON SATURDAY.
WE WILL BE MONITORING UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORIGINATE OVER NE IOWA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOLLOW THE THETA-E GRADIENT EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS ALIGNS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE SOME FACTORS
POINT TOWARDS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH
COULD IMPEDE THE EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES MAY DIP BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY
WHILE NORTHWEST OHIO WARMS INTO THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON MONDAY BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW. EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO MID-WEEK WILL SUPPORT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT 10:20Z/THURS, A VERY WEAK, ILL-DEFINED, AND MOISTURE-STARVED
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARED TO STRETCH SW'WARD FROM JUST EAST
AND SOUTH OF KIAG TO JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF KPCW AND JUST NORTH
AND WEST OF KFDY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY
S'WARD AND EXIT THE REST OF OUR REGION BY 16Z/THURS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, A SURFACE RIDGE AFFECTS OUR REGION THROUGH 12Z/FRI AS THE
EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY BE CALM OR VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 5 KNOTS
IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE MSLP GRADIENT REMAINS
WEAK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND VERY NEAR LAKE ERIE,
INCLUDING AT KCLE AND KERI. THIS IS WHERE A SE'ERLY TO S'ERLY
LAND BREEZE AROUND 5 KNOTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH ~13Z/THURS AND
AFTER ~03Z/FRI, AND A NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY LAKE BREEZE AROUND 5
KNOTS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ~16Z/THURS AND ~00Z/FRI.
FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, INCLUDING DURING
THE PASSAGE OF THE MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT. MAINLY VFR ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/FRI. HOWEVER, ISOLATED RIVER VALLEY STEAM
FOG AND ASSOCIATED NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ~13Z/THURS AND
AFTER ~06Z/FRI. THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE
TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MONDAY.
MARINE
WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 12 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MONDAY. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS
GENERALLY S'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT'S PASSAGE
WILL CAUSE MAINLY SE'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS TO VEER TO N'ERLY TO
NE'ERLY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A RIDGE AFFECTS LAKE ERIE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK MSLP GRADIENT ACCOMPANYING THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL TREND ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO DAILY LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT LAKE ERIE AS THE PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES E'WARD TO
NEWFOUNDLAND AND THEN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST. ACCORDINGLY, A
WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL CAUSE MAINLY E'ERLY TO SE'ERLY WINDS TO VEER TO S'ERLY TO
SW'ERLY. PRIMARILY S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY,
BUT WINDS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP GENERALLY S'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL CAUSE S'ERLY TO
SW'ERLY WINDS TO VEER TO NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA THROUGH THIS MONDAY, WHICH WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO PRIMARILY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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