208
FXUS61 KCLE 111723
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
123 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL EXPAND SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY,
THEN GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CANADA
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA. A 1030MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD EAST INTO QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST AND LOW HUMIDITY. SOME PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUD WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, THEN WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN, A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, AND A TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. WE
DO EXPERIENCE SOME RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON SATURDAY.
WE WILL BE MONITORING UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORIGINATE OVER NE IOWA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOLLOW THE THETA-E GRADIENT EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS ALIGNS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE SOME FACTORS
POINT TOWARDS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH
COULD IMPEDE THE EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES MAY DIP BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY
WHILE NORTHWEST OHIO WARMS INTO THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON MONDAY BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW. EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO MID-WEEK WILL SUPPORT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NON-VFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG AT INLAND TERMINALS AND KTOL LATE TONIGHT AND/OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. OMITTED FROM THE TAFS AT THIS POINT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT/DENSITY OF ANY FOG.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KCLE/KERI AND INCREASE TO
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH THE LAKE BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NORTHEAST WINDS BRIEFLY
DEVELOP TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH A LAND BREEZE ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS ANTICIPATED
WITH THE LAKE BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, BUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO 8 TO 14 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT, MARINE HEADLINES ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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