389
FXUS61 KCLE 121121
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST FEATURES SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR
TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN LOW, ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE WITH AN
ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE TODAY. LAKE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY KEEPING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA IN THE UPPER 70S WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
CLIMBS INTO THE LOW 80S. SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE HIGH
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE
WAY NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT HAD SHOWN LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN, THESE CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS RETURN MOISTURE NEVER QUITE
REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO DISSIPATE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR. WHILE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
IS LIKELY TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA, ONLY HOLDING ONTO A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NW OHIO CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT RAIN AND AND THE
PERSISTENTLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO WIN OUT.
THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN CANADA GENERALLY DOES NOT HAVE
MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AS IT DEEPENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOES STRENGTHEN ACROSS QUEBEC IN ITS WAKE ON SUNDAY
WITH A DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. A GRADIENT IS NOTED IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DUE TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH UPPER 80S IN NW OHIO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN NW
PENNSYLVANIA. THE DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LARGE DIURNAL
SPREAD WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NOT MUCH CHANGE HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS A TYPICAL
DRY PATTERN FOR THE AREA AND CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL IN CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE WHILE INLAND AREAS AND PORTIONS OF NW
OHIO EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
THE 3RD WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY
RADIATION AND RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS OF 12Z, THOUGH
VSBY RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY AREN'T IMPACTING ANY TAF SITES. TOL
AND FDY MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR VSBY BEFORE 13Z, THOUGH THUS FAR HAVE
REMAINED VFR. A BIT OF HIGH CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT <7KT TODAY,
BUT WITH UP TO 10KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT
CLE AND ERI DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE. INCLUDED LINES AT CLE AND ERI
TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT AND DISSIPATION OF THIS LAKE BREEZE.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW CHANCE OF
NON-VFR FROM ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST IS IN
CONTROL TODAY, LEADING TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TURNING MORE
NORTHERLY IN THE U.S. WATERS AT UP TO 10KT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT DUE TO LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
REMAINING <10KT. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL THEN
LARGELY CONTROL WINDS OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST, SHIFTING
MORE NORTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
AND A BIT MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST EACH NIGHT DUE TO LAND BREEZES.
THE "ENHANCED" NORTHEAST WINDS WITH THE LAKE BREEZES MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH 15KT DUE TO A STRONG LAKE-LAND
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL AND FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH
IS ENOUGH TO BUILD SOME CHOP. OTHERWISE, WAVES ARE EXPECTED
REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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