298
FXUS61 KCLE 121842
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
242 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNING
TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE WEATHER DOES NOT GET ANY BETTER THAN THIS FOR SEPTEMBER!
WATER VAPOR LOOPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THE LARGE OMEGA BLOCK
REMAINING IN PLACE, CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, SHARP
MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST, AND MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN PLACE AS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN THE HOT THERMAL
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND COOLER TROUGH TO THE EAST. GIVEN THIS
POSITIONING BELOW THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, A
VERY DRY AIRMASS IS FAVORED TO PERSIST, WITH FAIRLY LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS BETWEEN DAY AND NIGHT.
LOWERED DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON USING A NBM/NBM25/CONSSHORT BLEND SINCE THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS, EXPANDING DROUGHT, AND AFTERNOON MIXING ALL SUPPORT
LOWER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT RH VALUES. OTHERWISE, THE ONLY
FORECAST "CONCERN" IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY SHOWERS FROM DECAYING
CONVECTION TO THE NW CAN MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN OHIO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SINCE THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL BE WELL
TO THE WEST FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, WITH
THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST LIKELY WINNING OUT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR GUIDANCE TO OVER ESTIMATE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN DROUGHT PATTERNS. NEVERTHELESS, DID
SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS IN NW OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL ONLY
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S IN NW OHIO TO
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S IN NE OHIO AND NW PA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT,
COOLEST IN NW PA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL BE REINFORCED TO END THE WEEKEND
AND START THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS A NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER
TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE WESTERN CONUS
CLOSED LOW AND BROAD TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES HELPING THE RIDGE TO FURTHER AMPLIFY IN BETWEEN
OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A NEW AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD DOWN INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, MAINTAINING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF VERY DRY AIR AND
A SHARP GRADIENT OF HEAT TO THE WEST AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO
THE EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S
IN NW OHIO TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA,
WARMING SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO THE LOW/UPPER 80S IN NW OHIO AND
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT, COOLEST IN NW PA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NO IMPACTFUL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING AND PERSISTENT PATTERN ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE OLD MID
ATLANTIC AND SE CONUS TROUGH MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT
GETS STUCK BELOW THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE, BUT ITS MOVEMENT IS
UNCERTAIN. EVEN SO, ANY IMPACTS TO OUR AREA WOULD LIKELY BE NO
MORE THAN HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR MID AND LATE WEEK.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH DAILY LAKE BREEZES
HELPING TO REINFORCE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST OF NW AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH UPPER 70S/LOW
80S NEAR THE LAKESHORE OF NE OHIO AND NW PA. A FEW UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN NW OHIO. NO RAIN IS FORECASTED AT ALL, AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS AND AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO VERY
NICE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING BUT IT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT FOR ANY OF OUR TAFS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START MOVING
INTO OUR SKIES LATE SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 KNOTS
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL
RETURN SATURDAY MORNING. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CLE AND ERI UP TO 8 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW CHANCE OF
BRIEF NON-VFR FROM ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
MARINE
MARINE CONDITIONS AND FORECAST IS LOOKING VERY NICE THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK TO GET OUT ON THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING SOME BEAUTIFUL LAKE
CONDITIONS. A LIGHT LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A LAND BREEZE WILL RETURN TONIGHT OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS. WAVES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
BE AROUND A FOOT OR LESS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST OR NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 KNOTS LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WAVES WILL
BE AROUND A FOOT IN THE NEARSHORE THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE SLIGHT
INCREASE OF EASTERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY, WAVES MAY BECOME 1 TO 2 FEET
IN THE OPEN BASIN. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE 8 TO 12 KNOTS AND WAVES GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE WINDS RELAX BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 8
KNOTS FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AND WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT AGAIN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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