660
FXUS61 KCLE 130526
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
126 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNING
TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
THE WEATHER DOES NOT GET ANY BETTER THAN THIS FOR SEPTEMBER!
WATER VAPOR LOOPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THE LARGE OMEGA BLOCK
REMAINING IN PLACE, CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, SHARP
MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST, AND MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN PLACE AS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN THE HOT THERMAL
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND COOLER TROUGH TO THE EAST. GIVEN THIS
POSITIONING BELOW THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, A
VERY DRY AIRMASS IS FAVORED TO PERSIST, WITH FAIRLY LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS BETWEEN DAY AND NIGHT.
LOWERED DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON USING A NBM/NBM25/CONSSHORT BLEND SINCE THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS, EXPANDING DROUGHT, AND AFTERNOON MIXING ALL SUPPORT
LOWER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT RH VALUES. OTHERWISE, THE ONLY
FORECAST "CONCERN" IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY SHOWERS FROM DECAYING
CONVECTION TO THE NW CAN MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN OHIO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SINCE THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL BE WELL
TO THE WEST FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, WITH
THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST LIKELY WINNING OUT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR GUIDANCE TO OVER ESTIMATE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN DROUGHT PATTERNS. NEVERTHELESS, DID
SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS IN NW OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL ONLY
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S IN NW OHIO TO
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S IN NE OHIO AND NW PA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT,
COOLEST IN NW PA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL BE REINFORCED TO END THE WEEKEND
AND START THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS A NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER
TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE WESTERN CONUS
CLOSED LOW AND BROAD TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES HELPING THE RIDGE TO FURTHER AMPLIFY IN BETWEEN
OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A NEW AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD DOWN INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, MAINTAINING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF VERY DRY AIR AND
A SHARP GRADIENT OF HEAT TO THE WEST AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO
THE EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S
IN NW OHIO TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA,
WARMING SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO THE LOW/UPPER 80S IN NW OHIO AND
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT, COOLEST IN NW PA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NO IMPACTFUL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING AND PERSISTENT PATTERN ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE OLD MID
ATLANTIC AND SE CONUS TROUGH MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT
GETS STUCK BELOW THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE, BUT ITS MOVEMENT IS
UNCERTAIN. EVEN SO, ANY IMPACTS TO OUR AREA WOULD LIKELY BE NO
MORE THAN HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR MID AND LATE WEEK.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH DAILY LAKE BREEZES
HELPING TO REINFORCE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST OF NW AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH UPPER 70S/LOW
80S NEAR THE LAKESHORE OF NE OHIO AND NW PA. A FEW UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN NW OHIO. NO RAIN IS FORECASTED AT ALL, AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG AND
RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD
COVER EXPECT THIS FOG TO BE A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FOG
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP AT TOL, FDY, AND PERHAPS YNG, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS <30% WHICH PRECLUDED INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE, A DECAYING DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (BASES IN THE
10,000 TO 15,000 FOOT RANGE) WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE LIKELY WILL BE
SOME VIRGA FALLING OUT OF THESE CLOUDS, THOUGH ODDS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE ARE <30% AT ANY GIVEN TAF
SITE WITH ODDS OF ANY RESTRICTIONS VERY LOW AT <10%. GIVEN THIS,
DID INCLUDE A LINE TO BRING IN THIS "LOWER" CEILING AT ALL SITES,
THOUGH REFRAINED FROM INCLUDING ANY VCSH IN THE TAFS. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE NEED TO ADD THIS AT FDY/MFD OR BACK IN AT TOL IN
FUTURE CYCLES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN <7KT FOR MOST, WITH VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING MAINLY NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTH WINDS NEAR LAKE
ERIE AT UP TO 10KT THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING AT CLE AND ERI.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW CHANCE OF
BRIEF NON-VFR FROM ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
MARINE
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15KT AND WAVES 2
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT UP
TO 10KT AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO OUR NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY AND PRIMARILY CONTROL WINDS OVER AND NEAR LAKE ERIE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PRIMARILY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TURNING A BIT MORE NORTHEASTERLY/ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND A BIT MORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST/OFFSHORE EACH NIGHT DUE TO LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TURNING MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY,
THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN <15KT. THE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO UP TO 15KT AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS,
WHICH COULD BUILD MINOR WAVE ACTIVITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY
BEGIN TURNING MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH
THAT'S A WAYS OUT SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY MARINE IMPACTS IS LOW.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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