883
FXUS61 KCLE 131047
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
647 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD TO THE AREA.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS GENERALLY DRY BELOW 600MB AS SEEN ON 00Z
DTX RAOB WITH JUST A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR 750MB.
PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA STATE LINE. THE LOCAL AREA CAN
PRIMARILY EXPECT THICKENING OF THE CLOUD FIELD BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
YESTERDAYS VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION NEAR 850MB DOES SNEAK INTO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED WEST OF THE AREA AND
IT IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, BUT WORTH
MAINTAINING A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SET-UP OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST, ENHANCING THE LAKE
BREEZE. FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER WHILE INLAND AREAS TREND UP A COUPLE DEGREES
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
INTO CANADA. HEIGHTS CLIMB ALOFT WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES CREEPING
UP WHILE SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OFF LAKE ERIE WILL
HAVE A MODERATING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SWINGS OF 25-30 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENT DRY
AIRMASS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THURSDAY AS WINDS DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH, THEY ALL SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
RETURN MOISTURE TO END THE WEEK AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL HAVE A DAMPENING EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED
IFR OR LOWER VSBY, THOUGH THIS IS NOT IMPACTING ANY TAF SITES.
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WI
AS OF 11Z IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS WON'T REACH THE
AREA, THOUGH EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM THIS
CONVECTION (BASES GENERALLY 6-10,000 FEET) WILL SPREAD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. VIRGA WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. RAIN HAS BEEN REACHING
THE GROUND UPSTREAM OVER MI FROM THESE CLOUDS, AND RECENT
HRRR/RAP RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HI-RES NAM IN BRINGING
IN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHWEST OH. GIVEN THIS, ADDED A
3-HOUR WINDOW OF VCSH AT TOL AND FDY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FARTHER
EAST HAVE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCLUDED, THOUGH WITH NO CONCERN
FOR PRECIP. SKIES TREND TOWARDS CLEAR THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FUTURE
CYCLES WILL RE-EVALUATE IF THIS NEEDS INCLUDED IN ANY TAFS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN <7KT FOR MOST, WITH VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING MAINLY NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTH WINDS NEAR LAKE
ERIE AT UP TO 10KT THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING AT CLE AND ERI.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW CHANCE OF
BRIEF NON-VFR FROM ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
MARINE
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15KT AND WAVES 2
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT UP
TO 10KT AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO OUR NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY AND PRIMARILY CONTROL WINDS OVER AND NEAR LAKE ERIE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PRIMARILY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TURNING A BIT MORE NORTHEASTERLY/ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND A BIT MORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST/OFFSHORE EACH NIGHT DUE TO LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TURNING MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY,
THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN <15KT. THE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO UP TO 15KT AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS,
WHICH COULD BUILD MINOR WAVE ACTIVITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY
BEGIN TURNING MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH
THAT'S A WAYS OUT SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY MARINE IMPACTS IS LOW.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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