665
FXUS61 KCLE 131808
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
208 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD TO THE AREA.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS GENERALLY DRY BELOW 600MB AS SEEN ON 00Z
DTX RAOB WITH JUST A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR 750MB.
PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA STATE LINE. THE LOCAL AREA CAN
PRIMARILY EXPECT THICKENING OF THE CLOUD FIELD BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
YESTERDAYS VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION NEAR 850MB DOES SNEAK INTO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED WEST OF THE AREA AND
IT IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, BUT WORTH
MAINTAINING A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SET-UP OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST, ENHANCING THE LAKE
BREEZE. FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER WHILE INLAND AREAS TREND UP A COUPLE DEGREES
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
INTO CANADA. HEIGHTS CLIMB ALOFT WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES CREEPING
UP WHILE SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OFF LAKE ERIE WILL
HAVE A MODERATING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SWINGS OF 25-30 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENT DRY
AIRMASS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK ON THURSDAY AS WINDS DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH, THEY ALL SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
RETURN MOISTURE TO END THE WEEK AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL HAVE A DAMPENING EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN BROKEN CIRRUS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT PRIMARILY AT KFDY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTS ON CIGS/VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG AT KTOL/KFDY
LATE TONIGHT AND/OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT,
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT, TIMING, AND DENSITY OF FOG IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT INLAND
TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE WILL PRODUCE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT KCLE/KERI THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AREAWIDE WILL LARGELY BE OUT
OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
AND INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. WINDS MAY INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GENERALLY SIMILAR FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH A
LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page