635
FXUS61 KCLE 131850
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
250 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE ENERGY FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH. CURRENTLY, THERE
ARE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA, WITH A FEW HIGHER RETURNS IN WESTERN OHIO. THOUGH,
MOST OF THE RAIN HASN'T BEEN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND SINCE THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO GO ALONG WITH IT. IT'D BE HARD
TO RULE OUT FEELING ANY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN PERIODICALLY THIS
EVENING, BUT THERE WON'T BE ANY APPRECIABLE QPF IN THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGING WILL BUILD UP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
QUIET, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN IN THE MID
50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS
THE RIDGING PERSISTS. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DEEPEN INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE STATUS QUO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOW DOWN INTO THE 50S. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUTED A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN BROKEN CIRRUS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT PRIMARILY AT KFDY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTS ON CIGS/VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG AT KTOL/KFDY
LATE TONIGHT AND/OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT,
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT, TIMING, AND DENSITY OF FOG IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT INLAND
TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE WILL PRODUCE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT KCLE/KERI THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AREAWIDE WILL LARGELY BE OUT
OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
AND INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. WINDS MAY INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GENERALLY SIMILAR FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH A
LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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