899
FXUS61 KCLE 132330
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE ENERGY FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH. CURRENTLY, THERE
ARE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA, WITH A FEW HIGHER RETURNS IN WESTERN OHIO. THOUGH,
MOST OF THE RAIN HASN'T BEEN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND SINCE THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO GO ALONG WITH IT. IT'D BE HARD
TO RULE OUT FEELING ANY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN PERIODICALLY THIS
EVENING, BUT THERE WON'T BE ANY APPRECIABLE QPF IN THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ON SUNDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGING WILL BUILD UP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
QUIET, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN IN THE MID
50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS
THE RIDGING PERSISTS. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DEEPEN INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE STATUS QUO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOW DOWN INTO THE 50S. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUTED A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST OHIO AND MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR KTOL. PATCHY FOG MAY
ALSO POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO. CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW TO ADD TO ANY TAF
SITES THOUGH.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 4-7 KNOTS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO
AROUND 8-12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO
THE LAKESHORE, ESPECIALLY AT KCLE AND KERI.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
AND INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. WINDS MAY INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GENERALLY SIMILAR FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH A
LAKE BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...15
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