297
FXUS61 KCLE 140740
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT, AS RIDGING ALOFT CUTS OFF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF MILD AND QUIET
WEATHER. THERE IS A BIT MORE RADIATION AND RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING THAT RECENT MORNINGS, WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG ALREADY
OBSERVED AS OF 7Z/3 AM. FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 9 OR 10 AM,
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG TONIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT, THOUGH SOME VALLEYS AND RURAL/LOW-LYING AREAS MAY SEE A
BIT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S UP AGAINST LAKE ERIE TO THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 40-50% WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF LAKE ERIE TODAY,
THOUGH WILL DIP TO AS LOW AS 30% TOWARDS FINDLAY AND MARION. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (5-10 MPH) OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MILD AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO START THE WORK-WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST BUT STRUGGLES TO LIFT NORTH
DUE TO THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE. GIVEN THIS, THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER.
THE PATTERN OF MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES WITH WARM DAYS AND PLEASANT
NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER RIGHT NEXT TO LAKE ERIE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL AGAIN FALL AS LOW AS 30% WELL-INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE BOTH
AFTERNOONS, WITH HIGHER VALUES CLOSER TO 50% NEAR THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE BOTH NIGHTS, THOUGH IT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE
TYPICAL LOWER-LYING/RURAL AREAS AND SOME RIVER VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS CONTINUED QUIET AND
MILD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND,
SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WARM/DRY DAYS AND PLEASANT
OVERNIGHTS, WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF FOG. A "CHANCE OF SHOWERS" MAKES
AN APPEARANCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HOW QUICKLY RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
AND ALLOWS FOR SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN IS
UNCERTAIN. IT'S POSSIBLE WE HANG ON TO DRY WEATHER UNTIL SATURDAY OR
EVEN SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FAR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.
WITH THAT SAID, THE CURRENT NBM ENSEMBLE DEPICTS A 70-80% CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE (AT LEAST 0.01") OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...SO DECENT ODDS WE'LL AT LEAST GET A LITTLE BIT. HOWEVER,
ODDS FOR OVER 0.50" GENERALLY FALL IN THE 20-35% RANGE ACROSS THE
AREA. THAT MEANS THAT WHILE IT'S POSSIBLE PARTS OF THE AREA END UP
SEEING BENEFICIAL RAIN NEXT WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE ISN'T EXACTLY HIGH
YET. DAYTIME HIGHS TREND A BIT COOLER BY SATURDAY DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN BY THEN.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER LAKE ERIE WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT SOME
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
TOL/FDY. VISIBILITIES HAVE STARTED TO FALL IN PATCHY FOG AT SOME
NORTHEAST OHIO TERMINALS AND AT LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT TOL AND YNG
OVERNIGHT BUT ALSO INCLUDED A BRIEF WINDOW OF RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AT CAK/MFD TOWARDS DAWN. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE AT TOL/YNG BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A
PERIOD OF DENSE FOG AS SOME NEARBY TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TO A HALF MILE OR LESS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT FOG TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME MIXING AND FULL
SUN. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 6-10 KNOTS
BUT MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER AT CLE WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
ERIE.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06-12Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WAVES OF 1 FOOT OR LESS. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 10-15
KNOTS RANGE ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS
OHIO. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOPPINESS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH
WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ON THE CENTRAL BASIN. WINDS WILL RELAX AGAIN TOWARDS MID-WEEK
WITH TYPICAL LAND AND LAKE BREEZE CONDITIONS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND
WAVES GENERALLY AROUND A FOOT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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