057
FXUS61 KCLE 141832
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
232 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN INFLUENTIAL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE
TO PERSIST SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOME INCREASING EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FOR MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND PROLONGED
LATE-SUMMER NIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN TYPICAL
VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN STATUS QUO WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME WEAKER SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MORE POTENT
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM, BUT DRY WEATHER REMAINS
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WITH THE COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY LEAVING THE CAROLINAS, A MORE OPTIMAL
SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO SLIGHTLY CREEP
UP AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MID-
TO-UPPER 80S. FOR FRIDAY, THE MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO THE MID
80S.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SOME
20-30% POPS FOR RAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESSION OF
THE LATE WEEK PATTERN, AS THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL NEED TO FULLY
ERODE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PROMOTED THE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS, MORE DRY WEATHER WILL JUST
CONTINUE, WHEREAS IF THIS NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES, THEN THERE WILL
BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS, BUT UNFORTUNATELY NOTHING DROUGHT-
BREAKING FOR THE AREA. IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,
THEN HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 70S. IF IT HOLDS OFF, THEN MORE
80S WILL BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR IS LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG AT KTOL
AND POSSIBLY KERI/KYNG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08-12Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WAVES OF 1 FOOT OR LESS. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 10-15
KNOTS RANGE ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS
OHIO. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOPPINESS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH
WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ON THE CENTRAL BASIN. WINDS WILL RELAX AGAIN TOWARDS MID-WEEK
WITH TYPICAL LAND AND LAKE BREEZE CONDITIONS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND
WAVES GENERALLY AROUND A FOOT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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