125
FXUS61 KCLE 151134
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
734 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. RE-ENFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
5:45 AM UPDATE...
WINDS DECOUPLED FAIRLY NICELY OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL OH, ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
(<1/4 MILE VISIBILITY) TO DEVELOP...PER WEBCAMS, AWOS
OBSERVATIONS, AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS GOES IMAGERY. DID A
QUICK GRID/FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT WHERE FOG IS ONGOING EARLY
THIS MORNING IN OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS, AND ALSO ISSUED A
TARGETED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THE PATCHY DENSE
FOG OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING IN AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT A BIT TODAY, LEADING TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF
LAKE ERIE. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT IS ALSO MAKING IT HARD TO
FULLY DECOUPLE EARLY THIS MORNING, LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT...
EXPECT SIMILAR TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIMITED PATCHY
FOG. IT WILL OTHERWISE BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S, SLIGHTLY COOLER UP AGAINST LAKE
ERIE. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S YET AGAIN. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 30-40% AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL STAY A BIT HIGHER WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF THE LAKE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN SOME WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DUE TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTING NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS ANOTHER
LOW TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC...HOWEVER, A NARROW AXIS OF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS TIME, MAINTAINING OUR QUIET (AND LARGELY "STATUS
QUO") WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, SAVE FOR
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND VERY PATCHY RADIATION FOG IN TYPICAL
RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS AND SOME RIVER VALLEYS EACH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE TO THE LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE BOTH
DAYS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY, BUT WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY BOTH
AFTERNOONS DUE TO MESO-HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COOLER LAKE
AND RESULTANT LAKE BREEZES PUSHING INLAND. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30-40% RANGE, LOCALLY A BIT
LOWER, INLAND FROM THE LAKE IN THIS DRY PATTERN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE GENERAL THEME FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS "MORE OF THE SAME" TO
START, WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
FIRMLY IN CONTROL THURSDAY. THE QUESTION MOVING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY THAT RIDGING CAN BREAK DOWN AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TRY WORKING EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THERE HAS BEEN
A PRETTY NOTABLE TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE TO MAINTAIN STRONGER RIDGING LONGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS
RE-ENFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SLOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH'S AND SURFACE LOW'S APPROACH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT MORE BEFORE ARRIVING.
DRY, QUIET AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS HAS BEEN
THE FORECAST FOR DAYS. THE MAIN NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE
REMOVAL OF MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...NATIONAL BLEND OF MODEL (NBM) GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE REMOVAL OF MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY, AND
THE SYNOPTIC TRENDS DISCUSSED ABOVE ALSO SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
LASTING LONGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
WILL THROW IN A CAVEAT THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST,
THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FAIRLY LIMITED/SHALLOW FORCING
CURRENTLY PRECLUDES NEEDING A RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
THAT. MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT
RAIN BECOMES MORE OF A POSSIBILITY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTING THAT WITH A "CHANCE" MENTION
FOR SHOWERS STARTING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN RECENT AND
ONGOING TRENDS, WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THAT LIKELIHOOD OVER THE
COMING DAYS. MOST RECENT NBM PROBABILITIES STILL SUGGEST A
70-80% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE (AT LEAST 0.01") RAIN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY-MONDAY...VERY SIMILAR TO VALUES
FROM 24 HOURS AGO, THOUGH WITH A SLOWER ONSET. ODDS FOR OVER
0.50" OF RAIN SUNDAY-MONDAY REMAIN CENTERED AROUND 30% ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL, AT LEAST A BIT OF RAIN REMAINS MORE LIKELY OR
NOT WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE ONSET HAS TRENDED SLOWER, ODDS FOR A WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN ARE NOT LOOKING GOOD, AND FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF RAIN POTENTIAL ARE POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY, WITH HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO
THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. DESPITE RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER TRENDING LOWER
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BIT OF AN
AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT, SHAVING UP TO A FEW
DEGREES OFF BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS. BY SUNDAY INCREASED CLOUDS
AND SOME RAIN MAY TEMPER HIGHS, THOUGH RISING DEW POINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NW OHIO THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TOL AND FDY. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THROUGH 13Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. TOL COULD SEE
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN
10-12Z.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 6-10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AT CLE AND ERI AS FLOW INCREASES OFF LAKE ERIE. A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR BETWEEN 18-22Z.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING BETWEEN ROUGHLY
08-12Z.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP ENOUGH TO SEE WINDS RAMP UP TO 15-20 KNOTS ON THE
CENTRAL BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A MODERATE SWIM RISK AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. PERSONS SHOULD BE
AWARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL GET CHOPPY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
AND SOME STRONGER CURRENTS MAY DEVELOP AT BEACHES IN ERIE, LORAIN,
AND CUYAHOGA COUNTIES.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO NEW ENGLAND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE
LIGHTER WINDS WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER CANADA. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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