097
FXUS61 KCLE 152329
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EXTEND A WARM FRONT INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DUE TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECT ANY
FOG TO DIMINISH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL MIXING SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AT LOCATIONS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE DURING PEAK MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES, ALTHOUGH INTERIOR NW PA MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND
LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S MORE LIKELY
IN LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71 THAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LAKE
BREEZE. TUESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S
AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MUCH OF THE
SAME (DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES) THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL LIKELY WEAKEN A
BIT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COASTLINE. SIMILAR TO THE NEAR TERM PERIOD
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKE BE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
PERCENT SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE DURING PEAK MIXING WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER NORTH OF
THE LAKE BREEZE. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE SNOWBELT REGION AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE
WITH LOW TO MID 80S ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN
THE 50S BOTH NIGHTS, ALTHOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE TOO WEAK TO
WARRANT ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IF ANYTHING,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME
VIRGA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS MAY BE A BIT BREEZY AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT DRY
WEATHER IS FAVORED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT THERE'S
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE
TIMING OF ANY SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT WOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
MOISTURE/LIFT LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY
THINKING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY, BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SHOWERS TO HAVE POPS THAT EXCEED
CHANCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) THROUGH MONDAY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR GUIDANCE IN THE COMING DAYS AND ADJUST POPS AS
NEEDED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS THAT QPF COULD BE TOO LOW TO HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE RECENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH 80S LIKELY INLAND. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE
PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT SYNOPTIC SETUP AND IF/WHEN ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, BUT AS OF NOW HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE
FAVORED ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG MAY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN NORTHWEST OHIO, INCLUDING KTOL AND KFDY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6-10 KNOTS OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING BETWEEN ROUGHLY
08-12Z THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN BUILDING
TO 2-4 FEET. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS RELAX TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON LAKE/LAND BREEZES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BOTH DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD BEHIND IT. ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MAY RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...13
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