352
FXUS61 KCLE 161129
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
VERY LITTLE TO SAY IN THIS SPACE THAT HASN'T BEEN SAID ABOUT THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF WEATHER. ANY PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DISSIPATE BY 9 OR 10 AM, AND IT'S LOOKING LIKE LESS FOG
THIS MORNING THAN ON MONDAY. SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY
DRIFTING IN FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING,
WITH SOME (BUT GENERALLY LIMITED) CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY
DIP INTO THE 50S. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30-40% WELL-
INLAND FROM THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 50%
CLOSE TO THE LAKE. LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE (BUT GENERALLY
EASTERLY) WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 7-15
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND.
CONDITIONS APPEAR A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
WHERE SOME DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME AROUND SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE, FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MORE TYPICAL RURAL/LOW-
LYING AREAS AND SOME RIVER VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL GET BROKEN
DOWN SOME ON THURSDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, THOUGH AN AXIS OF RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST
OVERHEAD. THIS ALL LEADS TO A CONTINUATION OF OUR RECENT WEATHER
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS AND TYPICAL PATCHY FOG EACH EARLY MORNING, SUNNY/CLEAR
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, TURNING
ONSHORE OFF OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO LAKE BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S BOTH DAYS, SLIGHTLY COOLER
ALONG LAKE ERIE...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL DIP TO NEAR 30% WELL-INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE BOTH
DAYS, WITH VALUES STAYING CLOSER TO 50% ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHWEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH RE-ENFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY-SATURDAY. EXPECT A SLIGHT AIRMASS CHANGE AND
MODEST PUSH OF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT,
THOUGH A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN AND WEAK/SHALLOW FORCING CONTINUE TO
BE DEPICTED BY GUIDANCE, SUGGESTING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR FOR SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TREND A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A NICE PUSH OF
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST HAS HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN ERIE TO THE MID-UPPER 80S IN
FINDLAY AND MARION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY, PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING TO TREND MILDER
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM (DISCUSSED BELOW).
SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
THOUGH OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD AND/OR BENEFICIAL RAIN
CONTINUE TO LOOK INCREASINGLY POOR. GUIDANCE IS NOW IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST TO
OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER PLAINS/MIDWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. 48 HOURS AGO, THERE WAS SOME HOPE THE
SYSTEM WOULD TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OR OHIO
VALLEY, THOUGH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HAS TRENDED STRONG
ENOUGH SINCE THEN TO SHUN THE SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER NORTH. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY,
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS FLOW SHIFTS
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TO START NEXT WEEK, LIKELY PUSHING
A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS (30-50% SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ABOUT 30% ON MONDAY) FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HOWEVER, WITH NO
REAL FRONTS AND ONLY MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IMPACTING THE
AREA ONCE WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY IT'S LOOKING LIKE
RAIN WILL BE HIT/MISS AND DISORGANIZED AND PROBABLY MORE DRIVEN
BY DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVECTION, WITH INCREASING ODDS SOME OF
THE AREA DON'T SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT WITH
A SOMEWHAT WARM/HUMID/UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT SOME (NON-SEVERE)
STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY.
WHILE NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS A 70-80% CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST 0.01" OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT *SOME POINT* SUNDAY-
MONDAY, IT'S WORTH NOTING THE 20-30% THAT LEAVES FOR NO RAIN AT
ALL. ODDS FOR OVER 0.50" REMAIN CENTERED AROUND 30% ACROSS THE
AREA, THOUGH IT'S LOOKING LIKE THAT WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON ANY
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WITH CONVECTION GIVEN THE GENERAL LACK
OF FORCING AND ORGANIZATION TO THE RAIN. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO PERHAPS MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING TOWARDS AND LIKELY JUST ABOVE 60. LOWS WILL MODERATE
SOME, STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 60 SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHTS.
WHILE SMALL PARTS OF THE AREA SAW MEASURABLE (BUT GENERALLY
VERY LIGHT) RAIN ON SEPTEMBER 6, 7, AND 13, THE LAST MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WAS SEPTEMBER 4. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN NO
RAIN OCCURRING UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21-22, AND AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE IT'S EVEN POSSIBLE PARTS OF THE AREA MAKE IT
THROUGH MONDAY WITHOUT SEEING RAIN. ESSENTIALLY, AFTER A VERY
DRY AUGUST (IT WAS THE DRIEST MONTH ON RECORD AT AKRON-
CANTON!), WE'RE NOW GOING TO SEE WELL OVER TWO WEEKS WITHOUT A
DROP OF RAIN ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT FDY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD SHOULD IMPROVE BY 13Z. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 10-12Z WINDOW.
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST TO START THE DAY,
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT 6-10
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING BETWEEN ROUGHLY
09-12Z THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
LAKE ERIE TODAY, INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WITH LIGHTER LAKE/LAND BREEZES EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASING ON LAKE ERIE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. IN PARTICULAR, NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS OF 15-20
KNOTS ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A WINDOW OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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