489
FXUS61 KCLE 162318
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
718 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LEAD TO QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
STATIONED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. THE LOCAL AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
COASTAL LOW, BUT SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO, FOG WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO LOW- LYING AREAS
AND RIVER VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S
TONIGHT.
RINSE AND REPEAT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW/MID 80S, THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE, AND
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 30-40% INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL SETTLE IN THE MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY ERODE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NORTHERN OHIO ON FRIDAY. MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST AS FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE
SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOW TO MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FOR
SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER WINDOW OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN NEXT WEEK. TIMING FOR
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED BACK SLIGHTLY AS SHOWERS WILL
NEED TO OVERCOME A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD. HOWEVER, QPF AT THIS TIME
REMAINS TOO LOW TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL DENT IN AREAWIDE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOW 80S
EACH AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE REGION IS FADING THIS EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG
POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO, AS AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE MATCHED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS REGION. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER FOR KTOL AND KFDY AND HAVE EXPRESSED
THAT IN THOSE TAFS. FOR KMFD, BELIEVE THAT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR SOME DAYBREAK VISIBILITY DROP AND HAVE A BRIEF MVFR
TEMPO. ANY FOG OR LOW CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE
SHOULD BE A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GET A LAKE BREEZE
GOING FOR KERI AND KCLE, ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW MAY OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDS THAN TODAY AND HAVE CLEAR CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
BETWEEN 09-13Z WITH PATCHY FOG. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY TOMORROW. BY THURSDAY, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, THOUGH STILL LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS. SHOULD EXPECT A LAKE/LAND BREEZE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE LAKE AT 5-10 KNOTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE LAKE AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT
OF THE EAST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL OF NEEDING A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BY SUNDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...23
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