878
FXUS61 KCLE 172000
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
400 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S.
SATURDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME, WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE BIG BLOCKING PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING US
A LONG STRETCH OF VERY NICE, WARM, SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS TO START SLOWLY
MOVING AGAIN INTO OUR REGION AND HOPEFULLY BRING SOME RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO OUR FORECAST.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT THAT
WE COULD SEE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG. THE 12Z HIGH-RES FORECAST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED
DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AT THIS TIME. IF YOU HAVE TO DRIVE TO WORK OR SCHOOL EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, JUST BE MINDFUL THERE COULD BE SOME FOG TO
SLOW DOWN YOUR TRAVEL COMMUTE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
TONIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
ANY FOG IN THE MORNING WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE OR BY 9 AM. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL, BLUE
SKY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND FEELING
LIKE LATE SUMMER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO THURSDAY. A LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NEAR THE LAKESHORE AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE
UPPER 70S TO 80 DEGREES. MORE QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER BODIES OF WATERS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WE WILL START TO SEE SOME SMALL CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
AS THE BLOCKING IN THE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE
AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS DOWN
FROM THE EASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST
U.S. ON FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATER ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE STARVED OF MOISTURE AND COME THROUGH DRY WITH A WIND SHIFT
AND A FEW CLOUDS. WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER NICE AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ON FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM DROPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY, IT WILL CAUSE A FAIRLY DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NWPA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THE COUNTIES AND AREAS
NEAR THE LAKESHORE ON FRIDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
30 WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S OVER NWPA AND FAR NEOH AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR
THE REST OF NORTHERN OHIO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE GOOD NEWS WITH THE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SOME DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE BACK
IN OUR FORECAST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. AND OVERALL THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS
OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST BY NEXT WEEK. SPECIFIC FORECAST
DETAILS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS WE TRANSITION FROM ONE WEATHER
PATTERN TO ANOTHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THE GENERAL
FORECAST WILL CALL DAILY POPS OF 20 TO 35 PERCENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO STARTING SUNDAY BUT
MORESO MONDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL BE KINDA
LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE ON A DAILY BASIS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM
NEW ENGLAND AND VICINITY THROUGH 18Z/THURS. DRY WEATHER AND
MAINLY VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK MSLP
GRADIENT ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW OUR REGIONAL SURFACE
WINDS TO BE PRIMARILY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 5 KNOTS
IN MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER, A NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY LAKE BREEZE OF ABOUT
5 KNOTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH ~00Z/THURS AND AFTER ~16Z/THURS. IN
ADDITION, A LAND BREEZE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ~04Z/THURS AND
~14Z/THURS. THE LAKE AND LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT LOCATIONS WITHIN SEVERAL MILES OF LAKE ERIE, INCLUDING
KCLE AND KERI. PATCHY RADIATION MIST/FOG AND MVFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM ~09Z/THURS TO ~13Z/THURS,
ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KFDY TO KYNG LINE.
OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND
FROM NEW ENGLAND AND LINGERS OVER LAKE ERIE. WINDS TREND ONSHORE
THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. IN BETWEEN, WINDS TREND
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO LAND
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. DURING THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP GENERALLY S'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING FROM NORTHERN ON. VARIABLE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOME NW'ERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND VEER QUICKLY
TO NE'ERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE.
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL VEER GRADUALLY FROM NE'ERLY TO
SE'ERLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT LAKE ERIE
AND THE PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM NORTHERN ON TOWARD
THE GULF OF MAINE. WAVES OF MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED, BUT
OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS. ON
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT SHOULD DRIFT N'WARD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND CAUSE SE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO VEER TO
S'ERLY. WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. ON MONDAY, S'ERLY TO
SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS
PERSIST AS OUR REGION BECOMES LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF A SEPARATE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. AND
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BUT PATCHY FOG WITH
NON-VFR POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 13Z ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR POSSIBLE THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
MARINE
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND
FROM NEW ENGLAND AND LINGERS OVER LAKE ERIE. WINDS TREND ONSHORE
THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. IN BETWEEN, WINDS TREND
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO LAND
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. DURING THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP GENERALLY S'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING FROM NORTHERN ON. VARIABLE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOME NW'ERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND VEER QUICKLY
TO NE'ERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE.
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL VEER GRADUALLY FROM NE'ERLY TO
SE'ERLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT LAKE ERIE
AND THE PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM NORTHERN ON TOWARD
THE GULF OF MAINE. WAVES OF MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED, BUT
OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS. ON
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT SHOULD DRIFT N'WARD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND CAUSE SE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO VEER TO
S'ERLY. WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. ON MONDAY, S'ERLY TO
SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS
PERSIST AS OUR REGION BECOMES LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK
OF A SEPARATE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page