248
FXUS61 KCLE 180523
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
123 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S.
SATURDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME, WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE BIG BLOCKING PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING US
A LONG STRETCH OF VERY NICE, WARM, SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS TO START SLOWLY
MOVING AGAIN INTO OUR REGION AND HOPEFULLY BRING SOME RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO OUR FORECAST.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT THAT
WE COULD SEE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG. THE 12Z HIGH-RES FORECAST
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED
DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AT THIS TIME. IF YOU HAVE TO DRIVE TO WORK OR SCHOOL EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, JUST BE MINDFUL THERE COULD BE SOME FOG TO
SLOW DOWN YOUR TRAVEL COMMUTE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
TONIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
ANY FOG IN THE MORNING WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE OR BY 9 AM. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL, BLUE
SKY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND FEELING
LIKE LATE SUMMER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO THURSDAY. A LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NEAR THE LAKESHORE AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE
UPPER 70S TO 80 DEGREES. MORE QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER BODIES OF WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WE WILL START TO SEE SOME SMALL CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
AS THE BLOCKING IN THE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE
AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS DOWN
FROM THE EASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST
U.S. ON FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATER ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE STARVED OF MOISTURE AND COME THROUGH DRY WITH A WIND SHIFT
AND A FEW CLOUDS. WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER NICE AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ON FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM DROPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY, IT WILL CAUSE A FAIRLY DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NWPA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THE COUNTIES AND AREAS
NEAR THE LAKESHORE ON FRIDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
30 WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S OVER NWPA AND FAR NEOH AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR
THE REST OF NORTHERN OHIO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE GOOD NEWS WITH THE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SOME DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE BACK
IN OUR FORECAST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. AND OVERALL THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS
OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST BY NEXT WEEK. SPECIFIC FORECAST
DETAILS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS WE TRANSITION FROM ONE WEATHER
PATTERN TO ANOTHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THE GENERAL
FORECAST WILL CALL DAILY POPS OF 20 TO 35 PERCENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO STARTING SUNDAY BUT
MORE SO MONDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL BE KINDA
LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE ON A DAILY BASIS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH ~13Z, WITH KTOL, KFDY, AND KYNG BEING THE MOST LIKELY
TAF SITES TO SEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THOUGH AND AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA,
INCLUDING KERI, KCLE, KYNG, AND KCAK.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. NON-VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
ONSHORE FLOW WITH A LAKE BREEZE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS BECOMING
EAST-NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND
10 KNOTS, THOUGH LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WILL INCREASE THESE
WINDS TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS OF
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED. IT'S POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR AT LEAST PART OF
LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
COAST, WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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