245
FXUS61 KCLE 031747
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST, EXTENDING
WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE PROLONGED DRY PERIOD TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE 80S TODAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL IN THE 50S WITH THE WARMER LOWS ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S FOR LOWS. THIS MORNING THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG ESPECIALLY IN NW OH WITH ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT NO EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF FOG IS
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. BY MONDAY
NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD FALLING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S. THE
WARMEST NIGHT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT ANY RATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.25-0.5
INCHES, WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE RELIEF TO ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE QPF TRENDS
HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. BY THURSDAY, A CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN AND ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN AND
A SHIFT BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES, CLIMBING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINTAIN EXTREMELY QUIET, VFR
CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
GENERALLY S TO SW WINDS OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A LAKE BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH KERI AND
KCLE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NW AND
EVENTUALLY N. ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY AT THESE TERMINALS
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
VERY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS DEEPER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO S WINDS
AVERAGING 5-15 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WILL
SHIFT NEARSHORE WINDS TO N FOR A FEW HOURS. S TO SW WINDS
AVERAGING 5-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, BUT WINDS
WILL TURN MORE WSW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE LAKE BY TUESDAY
EVENING, WITH N WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS BEHIND IT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3 TO 5 FEET, SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT THAT TIME FOR
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND WAVES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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