053
FXUS61 KCLE 042322
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
TO DRIFT EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL GLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO MID TO UPPER 50S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. SOME SPOTS ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR MAY SEE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
AREAWIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED BETWEEN FORECAST CYCLES WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR QPF VALUES IN EXCESS OF
0.75-1.00 INCHES, MAINLY ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND EAST.
CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES FOR STORM TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN OR
EQUAL TO 1" GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 35-50% FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW PACKAGES. EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD DROUGHT, WPC HAS PLACED THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
4) IN THEIR DAY 4 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. ADDITIONALLY, CAN'T
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO 250-500
J/KG.
WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY SETTLE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD LARGELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD.
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS EXPECTED BOTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EXPECT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
AREAWIDE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY. CHILLIEST NIGHT WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WIDESPREAD CLEARING
AND CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS LONG AS THE CANADIAN HIGH
QUICKLY ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVERHEAD. WITH THAT, THERE REMAINS
THE CHANCE FOR AREAS OF FROST WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OCCURRING
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LOWS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AND SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL FAVOR A SLIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TONIGHT, 5
KNOTS OR LESS, BEFORE INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DID INCLUDE A NORTHWEST LAKE BREEZE OF AROUND 5 TO 7
KNOTS AT ERI SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH OPTED AGAINST INCLUSION
FOR CLE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST INFLUENCES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, 5-10 KNOTS, GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH, THEN INCREASE TO 10-
15 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WAVES WILL BE LESS
THAN 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN SHIFT TO BE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT TO 15-25 KNOTS OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 3-6 FEET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...23
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