792
FXUS61 KCLE 060712
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. COOL AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID ATLANTIC COASTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETREAT EASTWARD
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SAME AREA BREAKS DOWN. UPPER
TROUGH IN CANADA DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE CWA
FINDS ITSELF IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER
IN AN INCREASE IN SURFACE/LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
POPS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A
LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
PVA EMBEDDED IN THE 500MB FLOW. POPS WILL BE ON THE STEADY INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN AND
AROUND THE 18Z-00Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
RESULTING IN WIND INCREASES AHEAD OF AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, NON-SEVERE, COULD ADD TO THE
WIND GUSTS AS WELL. ONE LAST VERY WARM DAY TODAY IN THE 80S, COOLER
TUESDAY STILL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
POPS EXIT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AMID STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW, RAPIDLY
FALLING THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPERATURES, AND MUCH LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR MOST OF SEPTEMBER AND THE FIRST
PART OF OCTOBER. AFTER WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S, THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. A LARGE AREA OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM NW PA DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL OH IN A CLEAR SKY/CALM
NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXTENSIVE FROST. SOME OUTLYING AREAS
FAVORING COLD AIR DRAINAGE COULD ALSO SEE BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES REBOUND WELL, BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ONCE AGAIN. DRY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE TAKING PLACE DUE TO INSOLATION, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST REMAINS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE OF WEATHER. UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA,
GRADUALLY SPREADING A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK OF 5-8KFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, SHOWERS WILL BEGINS TO
SPREAD EAST WARRANTING A PROB30 MENTION OF SHOWERS AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KCAK, KYNG, AND KERI. GIVEN THE DIURNALLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IS VERY LOW SO
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER MENTION IN THE TAFS. SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR VISIBILITIES,
BUT EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KERI THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MONDAY
BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE LESS
THAN 2 FEET THROUGH THAT PERIOD. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE ON
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 3-6 FEET, MAINLY IN THE
CENTRAL BASIN. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO SHIFT TO BE MORE EASTERLY WITH WAVES BEING
1-3 FEET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE REGION TO END THE
WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...13/26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...23
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