418
FXUS61 KCLE 061144
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY. COOL
AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID ATLANTIC COASTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETREAT EASTWARD
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SAME AREA BREAKS DOWN. UPPER
TROUGH IN CANADA DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE CWA
FINDS ITSELF IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER
IN AN INCREASE IN SURFACE/LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
POPS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A
LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
PVA EMBEDDED IN THE 500MB FLOW. POPS WILL BE ON THE STEADY INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN AND
AROUND THE 18Z-00Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
RESULTING IN WIND INCREASES AHEAD OF AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, NON-SEVERE, COULD ADD TO THE
WIND GUSTS AS WELL. ONE LAST VERY WARM DAY TODAY IN THE 80S, COOLER
TUESDAY STILL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
POPS EXIT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AMID STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW, RAPIDLY
FALLING THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPERATURES, AND MUCH LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR MOST OF SEPTEMBER AND THE FIRST
PART OF OCTOBER. AFTER WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S, THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. A LARGE AREA OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM NW PA DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL OH IN A CLEAR SKY/CALM
NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXTENSIVE FROST. SOME OUTLYING AREAS
FAVORING COLD AIR DRAINAGE COULD ALSO SEE BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES REBOUND WELL, BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ONCE AGAIN. DRY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE TAKING PLACE DUE TO INSOLATION, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TODAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THROUGH 06Z THIS
EVENING, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH INCREASING MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KERI WHICH WILL BE
IMPACTED BY A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO BE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST, EVENTUALLY IMPACTING
ALL TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INITIAL IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL, BUT AS BETTER FORCING APPROACHES THE AREA, PATCHES OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE RANGE OF
MVFR TO IFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF THUNDER, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE SO OPTED TO KEEP THUNDER MENTION OUT. WITH THE
FRONT NOT ACTUALLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA TODAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING. TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST,
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO 10-15 KNOTS
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A
NOTABLE INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY
AT 20-25 KNOTS WHICH WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 4-6 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS
WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND ALLOWS WINDS TO WEAKEN FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
10-15 KNOTS AND WAVES BECOME 1-3 FEET. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...13/26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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