174
FXUS61 KCLE 061746
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
146 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY. COOL
AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID ATLANTIC COASTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY RETREAT EASTWARD
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SAME AREA BREAKS DOWN. UPPER
TROUGH IN CANADA DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE CWA
FINDS ITSELF IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER
IN AN INCREASE IN SURFACE/LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
POPS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A
LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
PVA EMBEDDED IN THE 500MB FLOW. POPS WILL BE ON THE STEADY INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN AND
AROUND THE 18Z-00Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
RESULTING IN WIND INCREASES AHEAD OF AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, NON-SEVERE, COULD ADD TO THE
WIND GUSTS AS WELL. ONE LAST VERY WARM DAY TODAY IN THE 80S, COOLER
TUESDAY STILL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
POPS EXIT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AMID STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW, RAPIDLY
FALLING THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPERATURES, AND MUCH LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR MOST OF SEPTEMBER AND THE FIRST
PART OF OCTOBER. AFTER WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S, THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. A LARGE AREA OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM NW PA DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL OH IN A CLEAR SKY/CALM
NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXTENSIVE FROST. SOME OUTLYING AREAS
FAVORING COLD AIR DRAINAGE COULD ALSO SEE BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES REBOUND WELL, BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ONCE AGAIN. DRY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE TAKING PLACE DUE TO INSOLATION, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CREEP BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. A LAYER OF CUMULUS CLOUDS AT AROUND
040-070 HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND WEST OF KCLE DOWN TO
KMFD. THIS WILL BECOME MORE OF A BROKEN DECK HEADING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE NORTH AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15
KNOTS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST. AS SHOWERS
BEGIN, MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WITH
BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING, IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW, EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST FOR THAT TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY, OPTED TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY
TOMORROW EVENING. CURRENTLY, ONLY KCLE HAS A MENTION OF THE WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE. RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER THE TAF PERIOD ENDS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10-20 KNOTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO
15-25 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BASIN.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. WAVES WILL ALSO
BUILD TO 3-6 FEET DURING THE PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDING LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE WAVES RESPONSE BEING
LATER INTO THURSDAY THAN THE WINDS. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT
10-15 KNOTS AND DECREASE TO 5-10 BY FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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