046
FXUS61 KCLE 061855
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
255 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BEFORE GLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
BY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, SUB-SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASES TO 500-750 J/KG.
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 0.75-1.00
INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-71. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THEIR DAY 2 ERO. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
DIMINISHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, UPPER 50S ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE. CONFIDENCE
IN AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 36 DEGREES
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OHIO AND TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN
PENNSYLVANIA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVERHEAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM LEADING
TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IF THE LOW MOVES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION EXPECT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASED. FOR NOW,
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. A LAYER OF CUMULUS CLOUDS AT AROUND
040-070 HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND WEST OF KCLE DOWN TO
KMFD. THIS WILL BECOME MORE OF A BROKEN DECK HEADING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE NORTH AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15
KNOTS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST. AS SHOWERS
BEGIN, MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WITH
BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING, IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW, EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST FOR THAT TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY, OPTED TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY
TOMORROW EVENING. CURRENTLY, ONLY KCLE HAS A MENTION OF THE WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE. RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER THE TAF PERIOD ENDS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10-20 KNOTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO
15-25 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BASIN.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. WAVES WILL ALSO
BUILD TO 3-6 FEET DURING THE PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDING LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE WAVES RESPONSE BEING
LATER INTO THURSDAY THAN THE WINDS. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT
10-15 KNOTS AND DECREASE TO 5-10 BY FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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