159
FXUS61 KCLE 070801
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
401 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
AIRMASS CHANGING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. CANADIAN AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND BACK TO DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AT THIS HOUR WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALSO ON THE INCREASE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOWS NOW 30-35KTS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD, AND ALSO GETTING AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL F-GEN
AS WELL. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS THAT
ARE ALREADY APPEARING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY VERTICAL PROFILES LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS HAVE LARGELY INCREASED FOR THE STORM TOTAL QPF TO 1-1.5
INCHES FROM MARION TO SANDUSKY AND EAST THROUGH THE CWA. FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN LUCAS COUNTY WILL BE FAR LESS, BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND HALF INCH DUE TO THIS AREA MISSING THE FIRST ROUND OF
FORCING, AND WILL ONLY BE SUBJECT TO THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF. COLD FRONT PASSAGE TIMING WILL LARGELY TAKE PLACE IN
THE 18-00Z WEDNESDAY WINDOW. EXPECTING COLD AIR ADVECTION WIND
INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PEAKING WEDNESDAY, AND A DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS SPILLING IN. GOING FROM RAIN COOLED 70S IN THE
WARMER AIRMASS TODAY TO UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SOME THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT SEVERE THREAT
IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT TERM WHEN EXAMINING
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS, WHICH WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS DOWN INTO THE LOWER
30S, A CALM WIND, AND CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
EFFICIENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE RURAL AND LOW
LYING/VALLEY AREAS OF THE CWA. LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY DOWN INTO SENECA AND HURON COUNTIES IN THE WESTERN CWA, BUT
OTHERWISE, AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE, 30S EXPECTED, AND
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AS OF THIS ISSUANCE. THE SAME
WILL HOLD TRUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE IN THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE SUBJECT TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEEM A COUPLE ISOLATED READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S BY
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ASOS/AWOS SITES SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S. THE
RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN
CONTROL. DRY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK IN PLACE WHILE A TROUGH DIGS
SHARPLY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO,
RESULTING IN AREAS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT, THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED IN
THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND LIKELY IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
TONIGHT, LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT THUNDER OCCURRING SO
REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHEN
ENHANCED FORCING FROM THE FRONT CREATES A MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. NOT EXPECTING THIS THUNDER TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
HANDLED ANY MENTION WITH A TEMPO. NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FOR THE FAR
WESTERN TERMINALS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 7-10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GAIN A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW,
REMAINING AT 7-10 KNOTS. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS, POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER FOR TERMINALS
CLOSEST TO THE LAKE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OPEN WATERS. THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AND BECOME
NORTHERLY, INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW,
WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGH WAVES
POSSIBLE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING
ISSUED FROM VERMILION, OH TO RIPLEY, NY THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THERE IS AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BASINS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THE POTENTIAL
DECREASES GIVEN THE UPTICK IN WINDS.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO 10-15 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE
AREA, EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO GAIN A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK AND NO ADDITIONAL
MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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