278
FXUS61 KCLE 071757
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
157 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
AIRMASS CHANGING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. CANADIAN AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND BACK TO DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AT THIS HOUR WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALSO ON THE INCREASE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOWS NOW 30-35KTS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD, AND ALSO GETTING AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL F-GEN
AS WELL. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS THAT
ARE ALREADY APPEARING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY VERTICAL PROFILES LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS HAVE LARGELY INCREASED FOR THE STORM TOTAL QPF TO 1-1.5
INCHES FROM MARION TO SANDUSKY AND EAST THROUGH THE CWA. FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN LUCAS COUNTY WILL BE FAR LESS, BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND HALF INCH DUE TO THIS AREA MISSING THE FIRST ROUND OF
FORCING, AND WILL ONLY BE SUBJECT TO THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF. COLD FRONT PASSAGE TIMING WILL LARGELY TAKE PLACE IN
THE 18-00Z WEDNESDAY WINDOW. EXPECTING COLD AIR ADVECTION WIND
INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PEAKING WEDNESDAY, AND A DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS SPILLING IN. GOING FROM RAIN COOLED 70S IN THE
WARMER AIRMASS TODAY TO UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SOME THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT SEVERE THREAT
IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT TERM WHEN EXAMINING
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS, WHICH WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS DOWN INTO THE LOWER
30S, A CALM WIND, AND CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
EFFICIENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE RURAL AND LOW
LYING/VALLEY AREAS OF THE CWA. LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY DOWN INTO SENECA AND HURON COUNTIES IN THE WESTERN CWA, BUT
OTHERWISE, AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE, 30S EXPECTED, AND
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AS OF THIS ISSUANCE. THE SAME
WILL HOLD TRUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE IN THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE SUBJECT TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEEM A COUPLE ISOLATED READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S BY
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ASOS/AWOS SITES SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S. THE
RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN
CONTROL. DRY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK IN PLACE WHILE A TROUGH DIGS
SHARPLY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE INITIAL PUSH OF SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS CONTINUES TO DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH HIGH-END
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS BEHIND THE INITIAL
PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TIMED OUT
TEMPO GROUPS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND FURTHER REDUCTIONS TO
CIG/VIS WITH THE COLD FRONT AT EACH TAF SITE THROUGH ~02Z/WED.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OUT
OF THE REGION AND LEAD TO CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY KEEP A FEW MVFR LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR TERMINALS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE REMAINING ELEVATED AT 8-12
KNOTS. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 18-22 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEARSHORE
ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD TO 4-6 FEET. AS SUCH, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
DECREASE AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10-15
KNOTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW 5-10 KNOTS RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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