488
FXUS61 KCLE 071942
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A CANADIAN AIRMASS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE NORTHWEST OHIO HAS SEEN A GOOD BREAK IN
THE RAIN. A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL OHIO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS YOUNGSTOWN AND MEADVILLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE WEST WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LOCATED ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF PORT CLINTON TO
FINDLAY AT 3 PM. OVERALL EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I- 71 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE,
ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST TO FILL BACK IN.
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR WITH ML CAPE OF 500 J/KG
OR LESS WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BUT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DOES REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE EAST WILL TEND TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB FALL BY APPROXIMATELY 8C OVERNIGHT,
USHERING IN A MUCH DIFFERENT AIRMASS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE OVERHEAD AT 12Z AND GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING SCATTERED CLOUD
OFF LAKE ERIE DESPITE THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW GIVEN FAVORABLE
LAKE TO 850MB DELTA T OF AROUND 19C. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
TEND TO FEEL MORE FALL LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOLLOWING THE AIRMASS CHANGE, WE WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND IN NW OHIO SLIGHTLY WARMER
WHILE THE LOWEST MIN TEMPERATURES ARE FOCUSED ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF NE OHIO AND NW PENNSYLVANIA. LOWS IN THIS AREA ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S AND PORTIONS OF NE OHIO
AND NW PENNSYLVANIA MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY, REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL WITH FROST
CONCERNS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM ON THURSDAY
NIGHT PRESENTING A MORE FAVORABLE SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MOST INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S PRESENTING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FROST TO FORM. A FEW OF
THE COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NE OHIO AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW
PENNSYLVANIA ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR FREEZING AND THERE IS A
CHANCE A COUPLE COUNTIES COULD SEE A FREEZE.
OTHERWISE THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE 12Z ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SHOWING A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ENSEMBLES ONLY SHOW A WEAK TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW OVER THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO THIS TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF CANADA.
A WARMING TREND SHOULD RESUME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGHS BY MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 70 DEGREES AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE INITIAL PUSH OF SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS CONTINUES TO DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH HIGH-END
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS BEHIND THE INITIAL
PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TIMED OUT
TEMPO GROUPS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND FURTHER REDUCTIONS TO
CIG/VIS WITH THE COLD FRONT AT EACH TAF SITE THROUGH ~02Z/WED.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OUT
OF THE REGION AND LEAD TO CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY KEEP A FEW MVFR LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR TERMINALS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE REMAINING ELEVATED AT 8-12
KNOTS. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 18-22 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEARSHORE
ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD TO 4-6 FEET. AS SUCH, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
DECREASE AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10-15
KNOTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW 5-10 KNOTS RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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