735
FXUS61 KCLE 080706
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
306 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. FIRST, FOR THE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
TODAY, THERE COULD BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED BUT LIMITED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CUMULUS FIELD THAT WILL
TRY TO PUT OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO HERE AND THERE. THE LOW LEVEL RH IS
QUESTIONABLE, HOWEVER. OUTSIDE OF THAT, THE FORECAST REVERTS TO DRY
INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
WINDS EASE INTO TONIGHT, AND WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RADIATE FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. IT IS NOT
A PERFECT SETUP, HOWEVER. FIRST, IN THE 925MB ENE FLOW, SOME LOW
STRATUS FORMATION GENERALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND INTO THE SOME OF
THE INLAND COUNTIES OFF THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE. ALSO, WINDS
MAY HANG ON TO 5KTS OR SO MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE COOLING UNDER CONTROL AND ALSO INHIBIT FROST
FORMATION. THIS WIND FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT TO
THE FROST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED
TODAY, AS JUST A COUPLE DEGREE DECREASE IN THE VELOCITY AT THE
SURFACE COULD CHANGE THE TEMPS AND FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY FROM A
FROST STANDPOINT. FOR TONIGHT AND THIS ISSUANCE, NW PA AND THE FIRST
TIER OF COUNTIES INTO NE OH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO FROST WHERE THE
WIND SHOULD BE 3KTS OR LESS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
SHOULD BE ACHIEVABLE. SO WILL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THIS MORNING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD, LEAVING IT EXPANDABLE
WESTWARD IF NEEDED LATER TODAY. LAKESHORE COUNTIES ARE NOT AT RISK
FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED FROST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
FROST CWA-WIDE AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE, AND LIKELY FREEZES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MOST EFFICIENT IN THE
RURAL/VALLEY/OUTLYING AREAS FROM NW PA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
WAYNE/ASHLAND COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS FALL
SEASON SO FAR, AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS OR CLOUDS TO BE ANY SORT OF
INHIBITING FACTOR, UNLIKE THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS ALL DUE TO
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURN TO LAKE ERIE AND THE NORTHERN
CWA SATURDAY WITH A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FILLING SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ENGAGE WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
CLOSED LOW THAT DIVES TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE INTERACTIONS AND TO WHAT, IF ANY WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THEIR EFFECTS REACH OUR CWA. OTHERWISE, UPPER RIDGING
WEDGES BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING.
AFTER EARLY SUNDAY FROM THE EXITING UPPER LOW, THE LONG TERM
FORECAST IS DRY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE COLD FRONT THAT IMPACTED THE AREA ON TUESDAY HAS FINALLY
DEPARTED TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AND
QUICKLY IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS. PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS
STILL LINGER, HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS HAVE RECOVERED
TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LOWEST CLOUD DECKS LINGERING BETWEEN
3.5-6 KFT. THESE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BECOMES SETTLED OVER THE AREA,
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH TODAY, BUT OVERALL CLOUD DECKS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE NORTH AT 7-12 KNOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN KERI MAINTAINING WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD TO 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEARSHORE
ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD TO 4-6 FEET. AS SUCH, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
DECREASE AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10-15
KNOTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW 5-10 KNOTS RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ014-023-
033.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
149.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...13
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